Premier League Stats: Wigan v Everton

Stats / Bettorlogic / 23 November 2008 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

BettorLogic crunch the numbers ahead of the Premier League's Monday encounter.

Match Odds
Both teams have emerged from recent ruts; Everton are unbeaten in five after losing four of their first eight, while Wigan haven't been beaten in November having lost all of their matches in October.

However, despite their three game unbeaten run, Wigan have won only once at the JJB since beating Birmingham in April, going W1-D4-L4 in that time at home. They have a respectable W7-D5-L4 at home to non-Big Four sides under Steve Bruce but two of those defeats came in the last three games -- at Villa (5th) and Middlesbrough (8th) -- and the two losses last season were against Villa (6th) and Everton (5th).

As much as Wigan have struggled when hosting the better sides in the league, Everton have prospered at the weaker ones, going W10-D1-L3 at bottom-half sides dating back to last season (four wins out of four this term) -- a record bettered only by Chelsea and Man U.
Although Wigan's home record under Bruce is solid, they have struggled against top-half sides and have the second-worst home record in the league this season. Everton are fourth best on the road and have displayed a Big Four-like efficiency in these matches, making them good value for a win ([2.88]).

Correct score
No one score has dominated in Bruce's spell in the North West (0-0, 1-1 and 1-0 all occurring most often, 3/19), with 0-1 and 1-2 (both 2/10) most common against top-half sides. Those two scores account for two of Everton's four wins at bottom-half sides this season and five of their 14 results at such teams dating back to last term (3/14 2-1 and 2/14 1-0) so may be worth covering at [9.4] and [12.5], respectively.

HT/FT
The Toffees' 10 wins since last season at bottom-half teams are split evenly between the W/W and D/W, although seven of their nine such games in 2008 have been goalless at the half, with the D/W (5/9) dominating.
Wigan have suffered just one D/L in Bruce's 19 league games at the JJB though, with the L/L (4/19) narrowly trailing the W/W and D/D (5/19) as the most common HT/FT results.

Wigan clean sheet
Bruce masterminded five clean sheets in his first 10 home games after taking over but the Latics have kept only two in their last nine home league matches (against relegated Reading and promoted Stoke) as well as just two in their 10 games against top-half teams in that time. Everton have failed to score in just two of their last 13 at non-Big Four sides and in only one of 10 at bottom-half teams, so 'No' ([1.38]) has to be the selection.

Everton clean sheet
This market is tougher to call, with the long-term trends saying 'Yes' is value at [3.5], Everton having kept clean sheets in eight of 20 at non-Big Four sides dating back to last season but only one of those has come in their last seven such games. Wigan have failed to score in six of their last eight at home though, so 'Yes' probably is the better option.