Stats / Bettorlogic / 25 April 2009 / Leave a comment

They may be in a perilous position at the foot of the table but Gareth Southgate's men have a knack of taking points from the Big Four. Can they repeat that feat at the Emirates on Saturday? Best Bet: Back Arsenal clean sheet @ [2.24].

Match Odds

Arsenal's resurgence continued on Tuesday with a thrilling 4-4 draw at Anfield, giving them 20 goals in their last six games, having failed to score in the four prior to that run. They now face a Middlesbrough team fighting for survival and with a knack of taking points from the Big Four.

Indeed, under Gareth Southgate only the Big Four themselves have lost a smaller proportion of their games against the Big Four than Middlesbrough (W3-D8-L11), although most of their best work has been done at the Riverside rather than on the road (W0-D3-L8). Southgate has yet to be bested by Arsène Wenger in five games though -- including two draws at the Emirates -- making him the only current Premier League boss with at least half a season's experience the Frenchman has not tasted victory against.

That improbable run looks likely to end here though for a 'Boro side that have lost nine in a row on the road, scoring only two goals, against an Arsenal team that have won nearly 80% of their games at home to bottom-half finishers and this season's bottom half (W30-D6-L2) since the 05/06 campaign. Also, teams in the bottom six playing at the Big Four in the final 10 games of the season have lost over three quarters of their matches as well (W2-D6-L25, W1-D4-L23 excluding the final game of the season) dating back to the 03/04 season, suggesting the added importance for Middlesbrough may be inconsequential. It is probably worth making sure the Arsenal team isn't over depleted ahead of their Champions League clash with Man Utd but otherwise [1.54] for a home win is too long.

Correct score

1-0 (7/35) and 2-0 (6/35) have been the most common scores at the Emirates for Arsenal since the start of last season, followed by the 1-1 score line (5/35). Those two scores are also the most common (4/18 and 3/18, respectively) against bottom-half sides.

1-1 has been easily 'Boro's most common away score under Southgate (11/54), including three in 11 at the Big Four (also 2/11 for both the 0-1 and 0-2), while that score has occurred in four of Southgate's five matches in charge against Arsenal. Covering the 1-0 ([7.6]) and 2-0 ([8.2]) looks a good value alternative to backing Arsenal outright, while the 1-1 ([9.0]) may be a good option for those looking to oppose the home side.

HT/FT

Arsenal's 18 home games against bottom-half sides since the start of last season have produced eight W/Ws and five D/Ws for the home side, with no other double result occurring more than once. Middlesbrough have suffered only four L/Ls on the road this season, compared to seven D/Ls -- with all of their three defeats at the other Big Four sides this season coming after a drawn first half.

Arsenal clean sheet

Arsenal have not conceded at home since Robbie Keane's equaliser for Liverpool just before Christmas, with only Man Utd (11) keeping more clean sheets at home than them this season (10). They have also prevented two thirds (12/18) of bottom-half visitors from scoring since the start of last season.

Gary O'Neil's equaliser at Bolton was 'Boro's first away goal since the start of December and they have failed to score in half of their away matches this season. 'Boro have managed to score in over half (6/11) of Southgate's away games against the Big Four but even so, both sides' recent form suggests there is no way the Arsenal clean sheet ([2.24]) should be odds-against.

Middlesbrough clean sheet

'Boro have managed one clean sheet on the road all season as well as one in their last 20 at the Big Four. Arsenal have failed to score four times at home this season but have done so in only two of 38 games at home to bottom-half sides since 05/06 and in their current free-scoring form it is impossible to back the 'Boro clean sheet.