Premier League Stats, 9th November: Fulham v Newcastle

Stats / Bettorlogic / 08 November 2008 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Newcastle are short in the betting for Sunday's Craven Cottage fixture, say Bettorlogic. Find out why here...

Match Odds
Fulham have lost more home games (W6-D1-L7) than any other team in the games played since Roy Hodgson's appointment. But the majority of these have come against Big Four opponents and Hodgson's record against the rest of the league is W5-D1-L3. Since the start of the 06/07 season Fulham have lost roughly a quarter of their games against bottom-half sides at Craven Cottage (W7-D7-L5, W2-D1-L1 under Hodgson).

Joe Kinnear has coaxed two straight wins out of Newcastle, conceding one goal in two matches having allowed at least two in each of their previous seven. Those victories came at St. James's though and they are still winless in eight on the road, having won just three times away since the start of last season - joint-worst in the league - and lost the most away games (W7-D10-L26) since the start of 06/07. Their numbers are obviously better against bottom-half teams (W4-D6-L10) in that time but still do not justify a win price of [3.2].

More generally, games between bottom-half teams in the first half of the season (minimum five games played) over the past two years also indicates the away win is too short. In that sample the home teams are W53%-D31%-L16% (56-31-13 without Derby's matches) which, alongside Hodgson's home win rate (5/9) against non-Big Four sides suggests some value in the Fulham win ([2.46]).

Correct score
The most common scoreline in Fulham's home games against bottom-half sides over the past couple of seasons has been 0-0 (4/19). One of Hodgson's four such matches (v Sunderland last month) ended this way with two of the other three finishing 2-0 to the Cottagers.

In the equivalent away query for Newcastle, it is the 0-1 (4/20) which has occurred most often, although it should be noted that the Magpies have failed to score in only three of their 18 away to non-Big Four sides since the start of last season.

HT/FT
Since 06/07 over half of Newcastle's defeats to non-Big Four (10/17) and bottom half sides (6/10), respectively, have come after a half-time draw, no other team in the league has double-digit away D/Ls in that time.

Half of Fulham's home wins against non-Big Four sides (6/12) in the same time have come via the D/W - although only two of seven against teams from the bottom half. Still, considering Newcastle's numbers, [6.6] for Draw/Fulham looks a good price.

Fulham clean sheet
As mentioned earlier, Newcastle have failed to score in only three of their 18 at non-Big Four sides on the road since the start of last season - only Chelsea (1/21), Blackburn (2/21) and Man Utd (2/19) have better records. Fulham have kept four clean sheets in nine at home to non-Big Four teams under Hodgson as well as four in their last six, so this market is probably best avoided.

Newcastle clean sheet
The other clean sheet market is clearer, with Newcastle managing two clean sheets in 18 away at non-Big Four teams since the start of last season and Fulham failing to score in just two of their last 10 at the Cottage - so 'No' ([1.3]) has to be the call.