Stats / Bettorlogic / 17 October 2008 / Leave a comment

The boys from BettorLogic cast a discerning over eye over Sunday's clash between two of the Premier League's bottom clubs.

Match Odds

Spurs' recent decline has far more to do with their drop-off at home (where they are on their longest winless run in the league since the days of Ossie Ardiles) than their performances on the road. They haven't won more games away than they have lost in a season since the 1995/96 and, of the 15 other teams that have been in the league continuously since the start of 2005/06, only three (Fulham, Middlesbrough and Newcastle) have accrued fewer wins on the road than Tottenham's 14 in 61 matches.

Their results away to promoted teams have been poor as well, going W2-D2-L6 in their last 10 and winning only at Derby in their last eight, making a win price of [2.3] for the visitors look too short. Looking at matches between teams struggling early in the season (averaging less than a point per game between games 5-20) gives a home record of W11-D10-L6, where the home side is promoted and the visitors not, which also suggests Spurs' chances are slimmer than the odds suggest.

Correct score

In Spurs' 16 away games under Juande Ramos they have scored more than once in only one of the games (at Pride Park), with the 1-1 (5/16) and 1-2 (4/16) scores accounting for over half of their results. In the above struggling teams sample those two scores (1-1 and a 2-1 home win) occurred in just under half (7/27 and 5/27 respectively) and they are the only two results to crop up more than once (both 2/12) in Spurs' away games against promoted sides over the last four seasons. So backing the 1-1 ([7.0]) and 2-1 ([12.5]) looks a good option.

HT/FT

Half of Ramos's away games with Spurs have been D/D or L/L (both 4/16), with the former the most common (6/19) for them against bottom-half finishers over the past two seasons. That same sample as before also finds those two HT/FT outcomes the most common, with five D/Ds and six home W/Ws.

Stoke clean sheet

Stoke's goalless draw at Anfield is the only one of their seven games in which they have managed to stop their opponents from scoring at least twice. Spurs' problems clearly stem from a lack of goals - their run of three games without finding the back of the net matches their total for Ramos's first 32 league games at the club. They have scored in two of their three away games this season but as mentioned above, only more than once in one of Ramos's 16 at the helm (at Derby).

Spurs clean sheet

Even though the goals have dried up for them, Spurs' defence has improved under Ramos with four clean sheets in 14 games away to non-Big four sides, compared to one in Jol's final 15 road games. Stoke have scored in their five against non-Big Four sides thus far as well so there might be some value in the [1.37] 'No' price.