Stats / Bettorlogic / 14 November 2008 / Leave a comment

Everton are back to winning ways and have climbed up the table dramatically in recent weeks but Boro are on the up as well after a win at Villa Park. Bettorlogic let the stats do the talking for this one.

Match Odds

Everton's draw with Man U appears to have kick-started their season. After taking eight points from their first eight games -- in which they conceded 18 goals with no clean sheets -- they have climbed from 16th up to seventh, with 10 points in four games and just two goals conceded and two clean sheets. Their visitors also appear to be on the upswing, unbeaten in four since a 5-0 drubbing at Stamford Bridge, picking up seven points from their last three away games.

Gareth Southgate's away record has a curious split, with 'Boro struggling mightily at the bottom six (W3-D1-L12) and the Big Four (W0-D3-L6) but proving very hard to beat against the rest of the league (W4-D11-L4). They are unbeaten in nine (W3-D6-L0) of such games over the last year.

One of those four defeats did come at Goodison (0-2 last September) and Everton, the early part of this season notwithstanding, have been very good at home to non-Big Four teams (W21-D9-L4 since 06/07). Taking out games against the bottom six weakens that record to W12-D8-L3. That suggests a home win price of [1.98] is fair but the relatively high draw rate (35%) coupled with 'Boro's resilience on the road (58% drawn) against similar teams points to the draw ([3.65]) as the best selection.

Correct score

The most common scores in Everton's home matches in that sample are the 1-0 win and 1-1 draw (both 4/23), with those two (4/25 1-0 & 3/25 1-1) also the most frequently occurring at Goodison against all teams since the start of last season.

1-1 is by far and away (7/25) the standout in Middlesbrough's equivalent away games. It is also the most common in Southgate's games at non-Big Four teams from outside the bottom six (7/19) -- making up all six of their draws in those games in the last year -- and as such, looks too long at [7.4].

HT/FT

Unsurprisingly, with 11 draws in those games under Southgate, the D/D (8/19) crops up a lot, with no other HT/FT result occurring more than twice in that sample. Everton have drawn the first half of seven of their 10 equivalent home games in the past year (three D/Ds) but it is the D/W and W/W (both 6/23) which dominate their results.

Everton clean sheet

The Toffees have kept clean sheets in nearly half (11/23) of those matches, although their 1-0 win over Fulham gave them their first in six such games and only their second in their last 12 against all teams in the league at Goodison (the other was against Derby).

'Boro have one of the best scoring records on the road in the last year, failing to net in only three of their last 18 games -- only United and Chelsea (both one) have been blanked less often. They have also netted in 10 straight games at teams from outside the bottom six (excluding the Big Four).

'Boro's away scoring record and Everton's longer term defensive woes at home makes 'No' look good value at [1.54], although we would be a bit wary with Everton's defence looking like they're back to something like their best in recent weeks.

Middlesbrough clean sheet

While they have one of the best recent scoring records on the road, 'Boro also have one of the worst clean sheet rates, managing just one in 14 away matches in 2008 and four in 25 since the start of last season. Everton have failed to score in only two of their 19 home games against non-Big Four teams since the start of last season, so 'No' has to be the choice ([1.23]).