The Bettorlogic Injuries And Suspensions Column: Spurs know Defoe woe is a big blow

Premier League / Bettorlogic / 19 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Jermain Defoe will be out for three weeks and Stoke look a good price to win with him absent

"Perhaps the most damning statistic for Lilywhite’s fans is that Spurs have won four of their seven away fixtures when both Defoe and Lennon have played but just three of 16 when either or both of them have been missing."

Jermain Defoe sits out Spurs' visit to Stoke City this weekend and the stats say they badly miss him. Bettorlogic tell us how else we can profit from this week's list of injured and supended players.

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Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing across the Premier League this weekend.

NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team's home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

Stoke v Spurs

Jermain Defoe

Spurs boss Harry Redknapp announced on Friday morning that his striker Jermaine Defoe had torn his hamstring in training during the week and would be out for around three weeks. Defoe joins Tom Huddlestone, David Bentley, Aaron Lennon, Ledley King and Jonathan Woodgate on Spurs' ever-growing injury list.

Jermaine Defoe has played at least 60 minutes of 30 of Spurs' 47 league matches since he returned to the club from Portsmouth in the January transfer window last season. The England international is the focal point of Spurs' attack and his presence is sorely missed; their PPG drops from 1.83 to 1.65 when he is absent and, more pertinently, from 1.36 to 1.00 on the road and since the start of last season, only Defoe (8 away goals) has scored more than two away Premier League goals.

Perhaps the most damning statistic for Lilywhite's fans is that Spurs have won four of their seven away fixtures when both Defoe and Lennon have played but just three of 16 when either or both of them have been missing.

The Britannia Stadium is a difficult venue to travel to with a full-equipped XI, but a Spurs side devoid of the talents of Defoe and Lennon, along with the other key players, are sure to struggle. The [3.55] available on the home win looks too good to miss, while the [2.58] on a Stoke victory Draw No Bet is equally attractive.

Round-up

Portsmouth v Hull

George Boateng

Hull are without their captain George Boateng who was lucky to escape with just a one-game ban for his sending off in last week's defeat against Arsenal that marked the end of Phil Brown's reign as Hull manager. The Tigers will view this a must-win if they are to remain in the Premier League, however they are particularly weak without their skipper. Since they were promoted Hull have won just 21% of their league fixtures, but this increases to 31% when Boateng plays and they face bottom-half opposition. Furthermore, when he is missing they have won only two of 18 matches against bottom-half sides.

Despite their financial troubles, Portsmouth have an FA Cup semi-final to look forward to and are unbeaten this term against teams currently in the bottom-seven and there is no reason to suggest Iain Dowie's presence at Hull will change this. There is certainly value on the home win at [2.26].

Fulham v Man City

Wayne Bridge has been ruled out for a month after undergoing surgery on a hernia problem. The left-back has played in 33 of Man City's last 46 league matches and, surprisingly, there is a reduction in the number of under 2.5 goal matches when he's absent -- 54% compared to City's average of 47% since the start of last season.

Roberto Mancini's takes his side to a Fulham side who are sure to be in high-spirits after their historic victory over Juventus on Thursday. Many teams find it difficult to breach the Fulham defence at Craven Cottage as five of their last eight home matches have seen fewer than a brace of scores. Expect that to become six in nine and back under 2.5 goals at [1.79].