Premier League / The Betfair Contrarian / 27 May 2009 / Leave a comment

There'll be smiles on the streets of Burnley this time next year when the small town club buck the Premier League relegation odds, says The Betfair Contrarian.

How could you not love the play-offs, with a new team each year jubilating over the fact they've just won the right to be next season's cannon fodder? Next year's Premier League doormats-elect are Burnley, who on bank holiday Monday forced Sheffield United to gaze miserably on their delirium.

The vanquished can take spiteful comfort from the fact that four of the last six play-off winners have lasted less than a year in the big time before being kicked to the curb, but the Contrarian has total confidence in Owen Coyle's Burnley side to defy the odds of 1.68 on them going straight back down. Here's why...

They have geography on their side
The Claret and Blues' promotion means that eight of the 20 teams in next seasons Premier League will be based in the North West. In each of the last four seasons, southern fans have been forced to make seven agonisingly long journeys up the M6 and yet remarkably no side from the region has been relegated since Manchester City decided in 2000-01 that they fancied a season in the second-tier.

Teams do well on their Premier League debuts
Seven of the nine teams who competed in the Premier League for the first time in their history this decade survived their initial season, including each of the last four. The last four teams to debut in the Premier League were Wigan, who finished 10th in 2005-06, Reading, who finished eighth in 2006-07, and Stoke and Hull who finished 12th and 17th this year respectively.

A newly-promoted team will survive
There has only ever been one Premier League season where all three promoted sides have gone straight back down and that was in 1997-98 when Bolton, Barnsley and Crystal Palace were the unfortunate trio. While Burnley finished lower than Wolves and Birmingham in the Coca Cola Championship this season, they may consider themselves more relegation-proof, having last dropped down a division in 1994-95 the only time in the last 24 years that they did so. Birmingham on the other hand have been relegated in two of the last four seasons while Wolves last three top-flight campaigns all ended with them finishing in the bottom two.

Hull showed how hard it is to get relegated
Newcastle and Middlesbrough, two teams that had each spent over a decade in the Premier League, both bit the bullet this season and their downfalls were so spectacular that nobody else needed to do much to survive. For the first time in Premier League history, five teams picked up 36 points or fewer and Hull's survival mark of 35 was the second-lowest amount that a team has ever stayed up with, just behind West Brom's 34 in 2004-05. Hull, with one win in their last 22 games, appeared to try everything in their power to get relegated but failed, and Sunderland weren't much better. With Stoke due a bout of second season syndrome and Portsmouth ready to make the same mistake twice by appointing the caretaker as they did with Tony Adams there are plenty of teams who will be involved in the relegation battle.

They got results against five of this years Premier League sides
The most important thing in Burnley's favour is that they have already shown this season that they are capable of competing with Premier League teams. In cup competitions they have beaten four top-flight sides Fulham, Arsenal, Tottenham and West Brom in 90 minutes and overcame Chelsea on penalties. The fact that they claimed all those scalps on a Championship budget bodes very well considering they will be expected to strengthen over the summer. Comparatively, Hull were thumped 4-0 at home by Chelsea in the Carling Cup during their promotion season.