Premiership Betting: Spurs' refusal to invest in experience could mean they pay the ultimate price

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 20 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Ralph Ellis discusses Spurs' transfer policy and finds a starting eleven seriously lacking Premiership experience. And could that be the factor that leads to them being relegated?

They say you can't buy experience, but in football terms that's not strictly true. When a club goes out to recruit players they can either look at potential or proven ability. They can make their transfer decisions based on a gut feel for the potential to adapt to their level, or on a proven track record of playing there. And of course it helps if they guy making the decisions has spent time understanding the requirements of the League he's in as well.

And that brings us to Tottenham Hotspur, struggling at rock bottom in the Premier this morning after yesterday's debacle at Stoke. Of the side that started at the Britannia Stadium just four players - Jonathan Woodgate, Jermaine Jenas, David Bentley and Darren Bent - had more than 100 Premier League games under their belt. Another four - Heurelho Gomes, Alan Hutton, Gareth Bale, and Luka Modric - had just 43 between them. It meant that while newly promoted Stoke were meant to be the new boys, in effect Spurs were every bit as much finding their feet in the top division. And it showed.

Those stats are worth bearing in mind this morning because Spurs to get relegated at [4.1] looks a fantastic value bet. They have a squad that might have fantastic talent but lacks the experience for a relegation fight. They have a manager who is also still learning about English football. And a director of football who has scoured Europe to pay huge prices for talented players but doesn't seem to have a clue about whether the ones he gets will fit into his team.

A few more statistics: Eight of the last nine teams who were bottom after eight games all went down. Of the matches Spurs have played so far only one of them - a 1-1 draw at Chelsea - was against one of the big four teams and another four against sides in the bottom half of the table. To reach even 36 points, which was enough to stay up for Fulham last year but still sent Reading down, they have to get 34 from their remaining 30 matches.

Stoke proved that experience counts because while Tony Pulis is new at Premier League level he's been around the block enough times to understand how to play to his strengths - and calling in the coaching talent of Gerry Francis, who has more miles on the clock than Juande Ramos or Damien Comolli put together - was a master stroke. It may not be enough to keep them up - they are [1.34] favourites for the drop, but it keeps them in there fighting.

Spurs are not the first club to have a raw foreign director of football buying untried overseas players. Portsmouth did it a couple of seasons ago and only didn't go down as a result because just in time they realised their mistake and brought back Harry Redknapp. He's set the model since, using his own judgement to find the players and putting a backbone of experience into the side.

Sol Campbell was magnificent for Pompey getting a 0-0 draw at Aston Villa on Saturday, and at 34 has been defying those who were ready to write him off. He beat John Carew for muscle and his positional sense was enough to make sure Gabby Agbonlahor never beat him for pace - encouraging signs as the UEFA Cup proper starts this week. Redknapp plans to stick with his best side away to Braga and with Peter Crouch and Jermain Defoe in goalscoring mood look good value at [2.56] to start with an away win.

Chelsea continued to set the pace with a devastating 5-0 romp at Middlesbrough, and the change in style that Luiz Felipe Scolari has brought was clear again. They are now [2.04] favourites to recapture the title. Manchester United's equally straightforward 4-0 destruction of West Brom gave more signs that Sir Alex Ferguson is getting Dimitar Berbatov bedded into a formation - now when you talk about Fergie you really are discussing experience. And Liverpool are still scratching out results to be second only on goal difference.

People questioned Rafa Benitez when he bought Robbie Keane, but the former Spurs player has that Premier League experience and what he would bring to the Anfield table was never in doubt. Still a generous [8.0] for the title, they go to Stamford Bridge on Sunday and will get their credentials thoroughly tested.

It won't get any easier for Spurs. Next up is Bolton, and their starting line-up in the 0-0 draw with Blackburn on Saturday had seven players with more than 200 Premier League games behind them.

Experience. You can buy it. And how Spurs must be wishing they had done.