Premier League Betting Preview: Newcastle v Sunderland

Premier League / Richard Walker / 31 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Sunderland are looking marginally less shaky than Newcastle, so Richard Walker is backing Kieran Richardson to twist the knife in the Tyne-Wear derby.

Other weekend results regardless, both these sides - and their respective managers - are under no illusions that they're in a battle to avoid the drop.

It's eight games ago (six of those in the league) that hosts Newcastle United last tasted victory, while their fierce local rivals Sunderland have shored things up somewhat under new manager Ricky Sbragia. The Black Cats aren't in scintillating form - but, crucially, they appear to be much more solid than the Magpies, who look decidedly shaky both on and off the pitch.

Joe Kinnear brought that initial stability to St. James' Park, a sense of togetherness was talked of. But, despite not showing a sign of it in his goalkeeping, Shay Given has had enough and will move before Monday's out so won't feature. Meanwhile, Charles N'Zogbia (or N'Somnia as Kinnear would have it) is also absent and likely to depart as soon as he can find a club that pronounces his name correctly.

Add to that the injury to Michael Owen and the arrival of Kevin Nolan from Bolton has been largely subdued. I think this news is more significant than the Wearsiders missing Paul McShane. They welcome George McCartney and Kieran Richardson back to the fold.

I'm taking Richardson to feature on the scoresheet, too. He's a [5.8] To Score chance, while more likely goal-getting candidates can be backed in the First Goalscorer market. Djibril Cisse [7.6], Kenwyne Jones [8.2] and Andy Carroll [9.2] are all at prices suggesting the first and subsequent strikes in this one could come from anywhere.

So it's a lay day for me, with some regret as I do prefer backing as a rule. Lay the home team to [2.78]. if you're bolder, Sunderland can be backed at [2.94], while The Draw makes up the Match Odds at [3.3].

It was 2-1 to Sunderland earlier this season and they haven't won at St. James' since November 2000 when now chairman Niall Quinn got the winner - but I fancy them to at the very least take what United have to offer. And I'm actually reckoning on another 2-1 to Sunderland. That's priced at [12.5], while 3-1 to the visitors - my second choice - is a [32.0] chance. Other options include [10.0] for 1-0 Newcastle, while the Correct Score jolly is 1-1, backable at around [7.0].

Over 2.5 goals is the way to go I feel, with both teams needing to get more than just a point from this Sunday lunch-time encounter. They'll be committed to attack - especially in this white-hot atmosphere - so [2.14] looks a decent shout, albeit for two teams where goals don't come easy. Unders is a [1.85] shot and I can understand if you'd rather support the statistically more likely outcome.

I'm not averse to a long shot in the Half-Time/Full-Time listings so, with United's less than reliable back line, Newcastle/Sunderland at [38.0] strikes more than a passing interest. Newcastle/Draw [16.5], Sunderland/Draw [16.0] and Draw/Sunderland [7.6] are among other options you might consider.

With pressure mounting for transfer action, barely mediocre recent form and a general malaise hanging around Tyneside, I can't see the gloom lifting at all for the fanatical Geordies.

Best Bets: lay Newcastle @ [2.78]; back Over 2.5 goals @ [2.14]; back Kieran Richardson To Score @ [5.8].