Premier League Betting: Why the sudden goal glut?

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 28 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Fernando Torres leads the Premier League goalscoring charts with eight goals and if he stays clear of injury, is the deserved favourite on Betfair's top goalscorer market.

"That applies especially to Fernando Torres, whose hat trick that led Liverpool towards a 6-1 hammering of Hull was simply brilliant. The Spaniard missed a lot of games last year because of hamstring problems, and was often rotated by Rafa Benitez when the Reds played the weaker Premier League teams. This time round he’s fit and flying and Benitez seems to have started picking a settled side. As a result Torres is 2.88 favourite to be top scorer..."

As Liverpool scored six and Sunderland and Spurs got five, Ralph Ellis wonders why the floodgates have suddenly opened in terms of Premier League goals and suspects the answer lies as much with the defenders as the forwards.

My betting.betfair colleague Ed Nicholson does masses of detailed research for his Over/Under 2.5 goals column, and I've made a few bob following his tips. But when he sits down to work out next weekend's selections I've got a suggestion for him: Tear up all the spreadsheets and charts, then just type: "Back 'overs' for the lot of 'em", and head off down the pub!

That would certainly have been the best way to approach the weekend just gone when an astonishing 33 goals went in during the nine Premier League games. Two of them - Everton's win at Portsmouth and Arsenal's at Fulham - were settled by a single goal. Manchester United got two at Stoke. Every other fixture would have paid out above 2.5 goals and mostly at very decent odds.

So what's behind the sudden surge in the number of times that Premier League nets are being rippled? Last year Nicolas Anelka finished the season's top scorer with a mere 19. So far there are ten players who have got four or more in the seven games so far, and they would all top 21 League goals if they can maintain that strike rate.

Here's a clue. Not one of those ten players is new to the division. They've all had time to adjust to the demands and physical effort of the game in England and are blossoming as a result. Meanwhile a lot of cluls have bought new defenders who are taking time to settle together.

That applies especially to Fernando Torres, whose hat trick that led Liverpool towards a 6-1 hammering of Hull was simply brilliant. The Spaniard missed a lot of games last year because of hamstring problems, and was often rotated by Rafa Benitez when the Reds played the weaker Premier League teams. This time round he's fit and flying and Benitez seems to have started picking a settled side. As a result Torres is [2.88] favourite to be top scorer, while Liverpool have moved into third and are now in to [7.6] for the title.

Torres has eight goals already, leaving a host of opportunities among the other early front runners. How about [46.0] for Robbie Keane, for instance? He helped himself to four in a 5-0 win against Burnley as Tottenham bounced back from defeats against Manchester United and Chelsea. Keane lost half a season last year but will benefit from being settled at Spurs again. If you take goals in all competitions Tottenham have three strikers in the top ten, making them value at [3.95] to be league winners without the big four.

United's 2-0 win at Stoke meant Sir Alex Ferguson's side hit the top of the table for the first time, thanks to Chelsea's shock 3-1 defeat at Wigan. This was one where the defending was to blame, especially for Titus Bramble's unmarked header early on. Now we'll start to find out more about Carlo Ancelotti. Don't forget we were still hailing Luiz Felipe Scolari as a genius when Chelsea were top of the table with as many as 15 games played at the start of last season, and we all know what happened next.

Sunderland were the other side to hit five, ruining Mick McCarthy's return to the Stadium of Light with Wolves. This one finished 5-2 and the defenders were far more to blame than the attackers deserved praise, as on-loan Chelsea youngster Michael Mancienne continues to find his first taste of life as a regular top flight centre half somewhat demanding. Wolves' problems at the back could yet make the current price of [3.05] for relegation look like value.

Portsmouth, still without a point, deserve to be [1.5] favourites to go down but it's way too early for Hull to be as short as [1.6]. They are only a win from getting on to the same points as the other clubs in the current safety zone, and may yet have a management change to affect the outcome. Phil Brown has had the dreaded vote of confidence this morning, and if he doesn't beat Wigan at home on Saturday, could find his reign is over.

Even Birmingham against Bolton, which on paper had 0-0 written all over it beforehand, produced goals as a late strike by South Korean starlet Chung-Yong Lee gave Gary Megson's team a 2-1 win. These really were down to poor defending. Alex McLeish has work to do with a Blues side who are finding their feet at Premier League level.

A final thought is that the goal glut has already been reflected in the prices for the last match of the weekend this evening when Manchester City face West Ham - it's [1.81] for over 2.5 goals, and a tempting [3.0] for over 3.5.