Premier League Betting: Too good to go down?

Premier League / Frank Gregan / 16 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

"If Mikel Arteta's return will be a huge boost and improve Everton's chances of European success. It might be prudent to take the longer term view, the Blues are currently [20.0] to back to win the Europa League and the recommendation is to get on at that price."

Frank Gregan doesn't believe Everton are in any danger of relegation this season. But then again, he said that about Newcastle this time last year...

These are difficult times for the blue half of Merseyside. Given their resources, last season was another resounding success for Everton but they have got off to a poor start this year and already the murmurings of discontent are starting to surface. Everton fans need to learn from history and not be too hasty to pile pressure onto their manager and the players.

This was always going to be a difficult season for David Moyes and his men. Last year they finished fifth in the Premier League which earned them a berth in the inaugural Europa League. The Toffees got through their qualifying round and have qualified for the group stage and their supporters can look forward to some great nights of European football.

They also enjoyed a great FA Cup run which took them all the way to the final in which they took an early lead before losing to Chelsea. As it transpired, because Chelsea had already qualified for the Champions League, Everton by virtue of reaching the FA Cup final qualified for Europe twice last year. A tremendous achievement and it was always going to be a case of 'Follow that!!'

The obvious way they could improve on last season would be to break into the top four.

That's a big ask because despite knocking on the door for the last three years, they haven't finished fourth since the 2004/05 season. They have finished fifth twice and sixth once in the last three years but the closest they have come to fourth spot was last season when they were nine points adrift. More realistically their best chance of putting a smile on the faces of their supporters would be to win a trophy. They have not won a major honour since lifting the FA Cup in 1995.

A significant blow to their ambitions to break into the top four has been the investment put into Manchester City. Over recent years, given a reasonably level playing field Everton have achieved better results than their near neighbours down the M6. All that is about to change.

The only club with any realistic chance of breaking into the top four this year is City and it must have been particularly galling for everyone involved at Everton when they came calling for Joleon Lescott. The manner in which the business was conducted added insult to injury and there is little doubt that a severe blow was dealt to Everton's pride.

The market that best reflects the start that the Goodison outfit have made is the Premier League Winner Without the Big Four. Bear in mind, Everton are the current holders of this title and were traded at [5.2] before the start of the season. They are now a whopping [22.0] to back and many will consider with only four games gone that is a wager worth giving serious thought.

At the other end of the scale there is [38.0] available to back on them to be relegated. The general consensus of opinion amongst Betfairians is that Everton are too good to go down. I concur but remember, around about this time last year nobody thought Newcastle be relegated.

Everton start the group stage of the Europa League tomorrow night with a home tie against AEK Athens and are [1.61] to back. It'll be good to have an investment in this competition to make Thursday nights interesting. If Mikel Arteta returns as expected towards the end of next month it will give the club a huge boost and significantly improve their chances of European success. It might be prudent to take the longer term view, Everton are currently [20.0] to back to win the Europa League and the recommendation is to get on at that price.

David Moyes has done a fantastic job at Everton in much the same way that the late, great Sir Bobby Robson did at Newcastle and Alan Curbishley did at Charlton. And that is the lesson that the Everton fans should learn from recent history; no matter how bad things get this season, David Moyes is a manager of the highest quality. Change for change sake is a recipe for disaster.