Premier League Betting: Results on the pitch are so often dictated by events off it

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 23 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

From Benitez's unsigned contract at Liverpool to Gareth Southgate's cost-cutting exercise at Boro, Ralph Ellis tells us why events off the pitch and in the board room often have a direct effect on what happens on the pitch. Just ask Manchester United.

How would you like a pound for every time you'd heard a player insisting the dressing room weren't affected by troubles elsewhere in the club? The manager under pressure? "Nothing to do with us." Politics in the boardroom? "Doesn't affect the players". Fans staging protests? "We just focus on our jobs".

The reality is totally different, of course. Like any other workplace a football club is a hotbed of intrigue and gossip. In fact even more so, because everybody thinks they can pick the team and everybody has an opinion on what's right and wrong. The difference to any other workplace is that when morale drops just two per cent it has a devastating effect on the field. All the more so in the modern Premier League where every ounce of effort and every yard of running is measured by the sports scientists and every team is getting fitter, faster and stronger every year.

Is it a surprise that the most stable club in the division is now running away at the top? Manchester United with a seven point lead over Liverpool are now [1.14] favourites for the title and even that looks good value! They might have huffed and puffed before they found a way to break down Blackburn's stubborn defending at Old Trafford on Saturday night for a 2-1 victory, but find it they did. You can look for reasons in Cristiano Ronaldo being lucky not to be sent off before he struck the winning free kick. The real reason was that the more Sam Allardyce's team dug in, the more Paul Scholes and Wayne Rooney raised the effort levels of those around them. And ultimately everybody was pulling in one direction.

Contrast that to Anfield where Liverpool's fans and players woke up to more speculation about Rafa Benitez and his contract talks. The Spaniard seems to have pressed the self destruct button from the moment his team looked to have taken command at the top. Getting bogged down in yet more politics with the American owners about his future has created a sideshow. And however much his players will try to tell you it hasn't affected them, the results tell the truth.

The Dirk Kuyt goal with which Liverpool grabbed a late 1-1 draw against Manchester City was too little, too late from a team which desperately missed the drive of Steven Gerrard. The England midfielder may or may not be back on Wednesday, but either way Real Madrid look stunning value at [2.06] for a home win in the Champions League after spanking Real Betis 6-1 on Saturday. It's sorely tempting as a punt to lay them at [1.22] for a top three finish in the Premier League too because the internal arguments aren't going to go away.

Chelsea's players began their game at Aston Villa with symbolic group hugs and high fives, and ended it the same way after Nicolas Anelka's deadly finish took them back into third place. Guus Hiddink's arrival has brought their internal strife to a temporary halt and they are now odds on at [1.95] to go above the Reds and finish second. He picked Anelka and Didier Drogba in the same starting line-up and it caused too many problems for Villa - and will for anybody else in the division too. Amazing it's only the third time they've ever both started a Premier League game in more than a year.

Meanwhile Arsenal continued to stutter in another 0-0 draw and guess what? They've got boardroom intrigue too with David Dein still attempting to return to the club via Red and White Holdings. The body language of their players still isn't happy, and won't get any better if they finish outside the top four. Will Fabregas and Adebayor want to stay at a club that's not in the Champions League?

At the other end of the table four of the bottom seven clubs have changed managers this year - although that's not the reason why West Brom are pinned to the basement. They proved again in a 2-0 defeat at Fulham that they can't defend and [2.36] for them to finish "rock bottom" is great value.

Middlesbrough might be the ultimate stable club in terms of how chairman Steve Gibson supports his manager, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Gareth Southgate has had to oversee a savage cost-cutting programme and the results of that are appearing on the pitch. A 0-0 draw at home to Wigan means they've scored one goal in nine League games and are [2.26] to go down.

Stoke remain [1.65] second favourites for relegation behind West Brom, but are still fighting and have found a goalscorer in James Beattie. He has four in five games and Tony Pulis's club continue to pull in one direction from the chairman down. Portsmouth, who did well to scramble a 2-2 draw in injury time at The Britannia, remain an unstable club however with Paul Hart still only the caretaker boss. How long before politics start to upset them again too?