Premier League Betting: Newcastle v Everton

Premier League / Richard Walker / 21 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

Everton are ravaged by injuries while Newcastle are, well, Newcastle. Stalemate! Cries Richard Walker. Best Bets: Back The Draw @ [3.3].

Rarely do I consider team news significant enough to alter my stance on a match - but the absence of some key Everton names, and none more so than the suspended Tim Cahill - has led me away from my original plan to suggest backing the visitors.

Just before Victor Anichebe's virtual repatriation into the Republic of Goodison, Cahill's movement and awareness was absolutely vital in the Toffees' striker-less formation. Equally important were Leon Osman, Steve Pienaar and Marouane Fellaini, and all three highly unlikely to feature on Tyneside this Sunday afternoon.

Everton do have Louis Saha back towards full fitness (a probable sub) while Chris Hughton's Geordies - as it is for now - welcome back both winger Jonas Gutierrez and striker Obafemi Martins. Alan Smith and Mark Viduka might also be involved however the Magpies have Michael Owen, Joey Barton and young forward Andy Carroll sidelined through injury.

For me, it all adds up to backing the [3.3] draw. You might choose to lay the visitors but I see no need for such indecision. The Match Odds are made up of Newcastle [3.05] and Everton [2.7], the marginal favourites funnily enough.

This is now set up nicely for one of those classic defensive displays from David Moyes' side. So although [1.79] for Under 2.5 goals might look a tad on the short side, I think there's enough value in there to play it. Overs is [2.26] if you're of a mind that the absentees for both clubs will force a much more expansive and goal-laden spectacle. I can't see it; Moyes defaults to 'protect what we have' mode and former full-back Hughton won't be advocating a gung-ho mentality against one of the division's form sides.

Draw/Draw is my HT/FT call, a [5.2] shot. There's always something for everyone in this market, since the more unlikely scenarios are fancily priced. Everton/Newcastle, for example, is [42.0] to back! If you reckon a side might be ahead at the break, Everton/Draw [17.5] and Newcastle/Draw [18.0] might be of interest - as well as a diversion to the Half Time Result section where you simply have to judge who'll be leading at the break. Here, the odds are United [3.8], Everton [3.4] and The Draw (nearly always the jolly in close games) at [2.06].

So it's a case of covering two Correct Scores for me. Of course you don't have to do them to the same stake and I rarely do. An 80%-20% split will often see you recoup your total stake if the 20%er comes up. For this one, 1-1 will be my chief play at [7.0] with 0-0 [11.0] the cover. A Magpies' 2-1 win is [14.0] while it's [8.8] about 1-0 to Everton if you think there'll be a positive result.

I've included Jo To Score (at any time) in my top tips for this one, simply because you can do far worse in football than siding with in-form players and teams. Like so many players before his arrival, Moyes has been able to get under his skin and get him ticking so the [2.92] price looks a nice one since he'll also be on penalty duty most probably. For the hosts, it's quite hard to call who'll start. Viduka is [9.4] for First Goalscorer with Martins a [8.4] shot.

As ever, plenty of options abound in Betfairland - there's more than one way to make money!