Premier League Betting: Appoint a good number two to avoid finding yourself in the number two

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 04 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ralph Ellis thinks it's no coincidence that the sides currently facing relegation all have a serious weakness in the "number two" (assistant manager) role and that includes the experienced Ian Dowie up at St James' Park.

"You should have stayed on the telly", sang the Kop to Alan Shearer as Newcastle's season crumbled closer to relegation. And at least he could find a smile. Alongside him his number two Iain Dowie looked very much less than amused.

Is that because Dowie was starting to wonder if he might also have been better off if he'd stayed on the box? He might not have had the mega Match of the Day contract like Shearer, but he was bringing in a nice few bob from appearances on the Soccer Saturday show and various other Sky outlets. And being back in work is doing his reputation no good at all. As Liverpool's shots and goals rained in at Anfield on the way to a 3-0 win, it was tempting to wonder if the very first decision of Shearer's reign - to appoint Dowie as his number two - was also his first big mistake.

With no experience of his own at the coal face of management, Shearer needed an old wise head. Yet Dowie's own CV at the top level contains only a relegation in one season with Crystal Palace. At a time when the new boss needed to bring stability, purpose and a sense of unity to Newcastle he instead recruited a man full of theories who is obsessed by sports science. They've now used 21 players in five games, and more formations than the Red Arrows. Static bikes have appeared in the dug-outs for the subs to stay warm. It's all new and innovative, when what was needed was simplicity and one big idea rather than a million new ones.

Ever since Brian Clough recruited Peter Taylor, modern football management has been moving to a two-man job. And the choice of assistant is probably the most important pick that any new boss can make. Maybe that's why the clubs struggling with relegation nearly all have a weakness in that position.

Sunderland's Ricky Sbragia was himself a number two before Roy Keane walked out and is still learning the Premier League management ropes. So what perspective could Neil Bailey bring him? He's never managed at any level, and both were powerless to stop Everton pulling their team to pieces with a cruising 2-0 win at The Stadium of Light.

West Brom played beautifully but got beaten again, this time 1-0 at Tottenham. Would an assistant with Premier League experience - unlike Mark Venus - have been able to convince Tony Mowbray to put some pragmatism with his principles? At Hull, who play Villa tonight, Phil Brown is backed up by Brian Horton who may have spent 25 years in management but only two of them at the top level. In fact the most combined top level experience (from amongst the relegation-threatened clubs is at Middlesbrough) where Gareth Southgate is backed up by Malcolm Crosby.

Will that help Boro, now [1.27] to be relegated, to survive? It gives them a chance to stay calm in the maelstrom that will be next Monday's trip to Newcastle. And three points there could help them overhaul Hull (currently [2.98]) and transform the whole picture.

If any of them wanted to know just how important the right number two is, have a look at West Ham. Their 1-0 win at Stoke was a triumph of grit and planning, with Robert Green revealing the coaching staff had worked out how to combat Rory Delap's long throws after hours studying DVDs. While Shearer got his first big decision wrong in recruiting Dowie, Gianfranco Zola got his right by capturing Steve Clarke, and as a result Hammers are chasing Europe and the only club with an outside chance - odds of [25.0] - to break up the current top six.

Of course at the other end of the table it's far more about the number one. And Fergie is cruising towards yet another title after getting his rotation right again for Saturday's 2-0 win at Boro. United are [1.11] despite Rafa Benitez also winning.

I've been asking for the last year why Chelsea never put Didier Drogba and Nicolas Anelka together in a 4-4-2. Guus Hiddink tried it on Saturday and they blew Fulham away - will he be brave enough to use it again against Barcelona? Chelsea are [2.42] to qualify.