Pay As You Lay: Expect goals at White Hart Lane

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 11 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Tottenham have conceded in every game so far and it is asking a lot for them to keep their first clean sheet against United. If the visitors do get on the scoresheet, Tottenham’s scoring figures under Harry Redknapp point to a high score."

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets. This week Andrew turns his attentions to the Premier League and La Liga.

Lay Sunderland at [1.82] v Hull

Many people have Hull down as relegation material - they are [1.93] favourites in the Relegation 2009/10 market - and there is a positive ground-swell behind Sunderland, yet the odds in this match might underestimate Hull and overrate Sunderland.

Hull were better on the road than at home last season and this season they started their away campaign with a late loser at Chelsea, followed by a 1-1 draw at Wolves. In between, Hull won 1-0 at home to Bolton and, while they were hammered 5-1 by Tottenham, their only defeats so far have been against the current top two, so it is unclear whether they will be as bad as they were towards the end of last season. Certainly, there are enough question marks about Sunderland, who also have a 1-0 win (away) over Bolton to their credit, as well as a slightly fortunate 2-1 home win against Blackburn, but were beaten more easily at home by Chelsea than Hull were away, and also lost their last game at Stoke.


Lay under 2.5 goals at [1.98] in Tottenham v Manchester United

Tottenham are one of three Premier League teams with a 100% record of over 2.5 goals so far this season and, while that run won't continue indefinitely, this clash has the potential for goals too. For a start, Tottenham have conceded in every game so far and it is asking a lot for them to keep their first clean sheet against United. If the visitors do get on the scoresheet, Tottenham's scoring figures under Harry Redknapp - 14 out of 16 games over 2.5 goals when the opposition has scored - point to a high score. Tottenham, too, have a good chance of getting on the scoresheet - they have scored at least two goals in every match this season, and in 13 of their 17 home games under Redknapp, including the last eight in a row.

Lay Real Madrid at [1.61] v Espanyol

Espanyol's new stadium, Cornella, makes its league debut and it should be rocking as the Catalans host the enemy from the capital - this might not be the big club from Barcelona, but victory over Real Madrid is prized just as highly by Espanyol. Within the club, there are hopes that the move to Cornella might be worth an extra 10-15 points a season, and this could become a tough place to visit.

The feel-good factor was certainly there at the stadium's inaugural match when Espanyol beat Liverpool 3-0 in a friendly on August 2. Espanyol have a good record against Real, with three home wins in the past five seasons, and Real have done the double over them only once in those five seasons. Although they started the new season with a 1-0 defeat at Bilbao, Espanyol were one of the form teams on the run-in last season, winning eight and losing just one of their last 10 games.

Real Madrid were vulnerable on the road last season, losing seven out of 19, and even with a new-look team, they may take some time to gel. At the odds available, Real look a risk.