Over/Under 2.5 Goals Column: Old Trafford and Anfield in-focus

Premier League / Ed Nicholson / 11 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

The return of Rio Ferdinand will strengthen the United backline

"Given the return of Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand to the heart of the United defence there must be every chance that Edwin Van der Saar will keep yet another clean sheet. If that was the case, we are asking the home side to score three times or more, which I feel is unlikely given the way that Fulham will be set up to play."

Ed Nicholson looks at a pair of key fixtures for two of the giants of English football

Manchester United v Fulham

United looked toothless without Wayne Rooney last weekend when ultimately they were lucky to come away from Molineux with all three points. Much was expected of Dimitar Berbatov, but he looked poor and didn't get into enough penetrating positions to score a goal. The Bulgarian is a frustrating figure and although he will score goals given the ammunition he is given, he is not one to rely on when thinking of being with the over 2.5 goal option. Undoubtedly Berbatov is better suited to playing at Old Trafford when all thoughts are on attack, but he still lacks confidence and if he was leading the attack I would be far happier to be layer rather than a backer of the over 2.5 goal option.

United though, despite that 0-1 victory, are scoring in the league with 27 goals in their last ten - comfortably the most of any team in the league. At home they now netted 39 times and no team have conceded fewer than their total of eight. Their last six home league matches have been over 2.5 goal affairs (11 out of 14 in total), and they have not conceded a home goal for no less than 609 minutes.

However, it must be noted that during that time they played West Ham, Portsmouth, Hull, Burnley, Wigan and Wolves - three of which have the three worst defences of any team playing away from home.

Against better defences like Aston Villa and Birmingham the games tend to be lower scoring. Fulham are a side who have demonstrated they defend first and foremost when playing away from home - not just this season, but since Roy Hodgson took control. The Cottagers have the eighth best defensive record of any Premier League side playing away from home this term. Four of Fulham's last five games have been under 2.5 goal affairs (9/14 in total)

Fulham have played plenty of games recently, and although they have performed admirably in the Europa League, they do not have the luxury of such a strong squad as United do. As a consequence they rely on four or five players to perform week in week out and sooner rather than later the effects of those hard games will be seen with decreased productivity from key players.

Only two from the last six head-to-heads have resulted in under 2.5 goal games, but there must be every chance that this game will be low scoring. Fulham have scored in three of those six games but have lost 7/8 matches against United in recent seasons at the Theatre of Dreams.

Given the return of Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand to the heart of the United defence there must be every chance that Edwin Van der Saar will keep yet another clean sheet. If that was the case, we are asking the home side to score three times or more, which I feel is unlikely given the way that Fulham will be set up to play. The line has moved in our favour (better price) since United's 4-0 demolition of Milan on Wednesday night, meaning even better value - the unders are available at a decent [2.38] (having been [2.28] before Wednesday's game). The bet has simply chosen itself..

Recommendation: 2pts, under 2.5 goals, @ [2.38]
0.20pts, Man Utd 3-0 @ 9.0


Liverpool v Portsmouth

Liverpool looked very ordinary against Wigan at the DW Stadium on Monday night. Having seen them many times this season, I feel they are a completely different side when playing at home as to when they travel away from Anfield.

Liverpool have scored the fourth highest number of home goals in the league (2.36 goals per game), while Portsmouth have scored the least number of goals away from home (0.5 goal per game).

Nine out of Liverpool's 14 home games have ended with three goals of more - and incredibly a further four matches have ended 2-0. Eight of Portsmouth's 14 away games have ended either 2-0 to the home side or over 2.5 goal affairs.

With Torres back and a need to put Monday's drab defeat to Wigan out of their mind, a high scoring Liverpool victory is envisaged.

Recommendation: 2pts, Over 2.5 goals, Liverpool v Portsmouth @ [1.74]
0.5pt, 2-0 Liverpool, @ [6.6]