Bettorlogic's injuries and suspensions column: Clichy absence is good for Arsenal

Premier League / Bettorlogic / 06 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

One of the best in the business but the stats say Arsenal seem to be better off when Gael Clichy doesn't play.

"Within this, Arsenal have won all six of their matches against bottom-half teams without Clichy, all six wins by the W/W double and all by at least a two goal margin."

Gael Clichy, Kenwyne Jones and Jlloyd Samuel are all out this weekend. Bettorlogic try to predict what happens when they're absent and how we can cash in on this knowledge.

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Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing across the Premier League league this weekend.

NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team's home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

Wolves v Arsenal

Gael Clichy

Arsenal make the trip to the West Midlands to play Wolves without their first choice left-back Gael Clichy, out for several weeks with a back injury. The French international missed several matches at the end of last season with a similar problem and this latest injury is suspected to be a stress fracture.

Since the start of last season, Clichy has played 37 of Arsenal's 48 matches, with the Gunners winning 20 times (54%) and averaging 1.89 points per game. However, in the 11 matches he's missed, Wenger's boys have won seven times and lost only once, averaging 2.18 points per game. While their defence has suffered in Clichy's absence - their goals per game conceded rises by 43% from 0.95 to 1.36 - the Gunners have more than compensated -Arsenal's goals scored also rising from 1.89 per game with Clichy to a massive 2.73 without him.

Within this, Arsenal have won all six of their matches against bottom-half teams without Clichy, all six wins by the W/W double and all by at least a two goal margin. Wolves have been solid in recent weeks but this will be their first meeting with a Big Four side. The W/W at [2.06] and Arsenal to win by two or more goals [2.01] on the Asian handicap both look to offer value.

Round-up

Aston Villa v Bolton

Bolton will travel to Villa Park without the suspended Jlloyd Samuel and the Trotters have a surprisingly bad record without the former Villa man. Since Samuel moved to the Reebok at the start of the 07/08 season, he has played 57 matches, winning 32% and losing 47%. However, in the 29 games he has missed, Bolton have won just 17% whilst losing 55%, including one draw and 10 defeats in his last 11 absences, where Bolton have found the net just twice and suffered eight L/L doubles.

Villa have drifted to [1.89] to win following their defeat in midweek and can be backed at [3.05] to record a W/W double: both prices look well worth taking.

Spurs v Sunderland

Sunderland head south without the in-form Kenwyne Jones who was red-carded last weekend. Since the start of last season, the Trinidadian has played 32 and missed 17 matches for the Black Cats with their average goals scored falling from 1.16 per game to 1.00. More significantly, the percentage of half-time draws without Jones has increased from 38% with him (HT W10-D12-L10) to 59% (HT W2-D10-L5) without.

Spurs are strong favourites for this match but without Jones Sunderland may look to play more conservatively and backing the half-time draw at [2.1] looks like a profitable strategy.

Liverpool v Birmingham

Glen Johnson missed the Red's last match at Fulham and should he still be out on Monday night, Rafa Benitez will be deprived of one of his biggest assets. That the England defender has made a good start to his Liverpool career is of little surprise, given the stellar performances he put in for Portsmouth last season. In his 29 matches, the South Coast side won 10 and lost 10 with an average ppg of 1.34. Meanwhile, in the 11 matches he missed, Pompey took just two points as their average goals scored fell from 1.14 per game to just 0.56 and their goals conceded rose from 1.34 to 2.0.

The value certainly lies with a well disciplined Birmingham side that can be backed at [1.83] with +1.5 goals start on the Asian handicap.