The Championship - promotion and relegation situation
Betfacts
/ Editor / 25 February 2007 / Leave a comment
Both ends of the Championship are intriguingly poised as the season approaches its run-in. The tight bunching of teams involved in promotion and relegation battles means most clubs have plenty to play for - nine points separate the bottom nine and seven teams are within four points of leaders West Bromwich Albion.
The thrillingly tight promotion race this season is a pretty rare occurrence in the second tier. In the last six years the third-placed team has finished within 10 points of the champions just once. In that time, the champions have finished, on average, 9.5 points ahead of the runners-up.
No-one has looked like repeating Reading's blistering promotion form of last year, which saw them finish with a record 106 points. Each time a new leader reaches the top of the tree they seem to falter, with Derby County the latest side to freeze after reaching top spot.
Billy Davies' men headed the table for the last month after winning 14 matches from 17, but one point from the last three sees them slip to second place on goal difference. An FA Cup defeat to Plymouth Argyle last weekend confirmed their current slump and they must bounce back after being hit by a last-gasp defeat at Sunderland on Saturday.
The Rams have conceded two goals in each of their last four league and cup clashes, which is a worry for a side that have relied on their defence. They have scored more than twice in a game on just two occasions in the league this term, and only three teams in the top half have scored fewer goals. They trade at 5.5 to be champions and are currently fourth favourites in the promotion market, being available at 2.28.
West Brom have profited from Derby's slip and will need to maintain an impressive recent record to claim their third promotion to the Premiership in six years. The Baggies have lost just one of their last 15 and have not been distracted by a run to the quarter-finals of the FA Cup. Their season might well depend on forthcoming derby fixtures with promotion rivals Birmingham City and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Tony Mowbray's men trade as current second favourites to be promoted, at 1.93. They are the division's top scorers, averaging 1.77 goals per game and are unsurprisingly well represented in the top scorers market. Diomansy Kamara, with 11 in his last 13, is available at 2.62.
Birmingham have been the punters' long-term favourites to reach the Premiership and remain well fancied at 3.85 in the Champion's market and 1.7 to be promoted. The Blues have won just two of their last eight and look set to take their promotion bid to the wire, frustrating those who were convinced that a run of 11 wins from 15 and a hammering of Newcastle United in the FA Cup showed they were a class above in the division.
Sunderland are The Championship's form team, remaining unbeaten in 2007, claiming 23 points from 27 available this year. Roy Keane's men have made steady progress this term, climbing to fourth spot, having been in the relegation places in September and in 14th place in early December.
The Black Cats are used to making the step up to the Premiership, gaining promotion three times in the last 10 years and their experience at this crucial time of the season has seen them shorten to 2.16 to be promoted, having been available at 3.45 at the end of January. With games against West Brom, Cardiff, Wolves and Southampton on the horizon, the Wearsiders are bound to play a major role in the battle for promotion.
Experienced Premiership campaigners Southampton look well-placed to reclaim their top-flight status. Like Sunderland they moved up a place after winning on Saturday, maintaining consistent from that has brought just three defeats in 21.
Saints boss George Burley knows his way around Premiership grounds and punters seem to believe he will bring top-flight action back to St Mary's. Southampton have not been out of the top six since late November and trade at 3.65 in the promotion market.
A Michael Chopra brace helped Cardiff City to a 4-1 win over fellow promotion contenders Preston North End on Friday night. The former Geordie hit-man trades as the 2.28 current favourite in the top scorer market and his 21 goals have been instrumental in keeping the Bluebirds in the hunt - they have been no lower than eighth all season and trade at 6 to be promoted.
Despite their heavy defeat at Ninian Park - a result that saw them drop from fourth to seventh in 24 hours - Preston are currently shorter priced than Cardiff to be promoted, at 4.4. The Lilywhites have struggled for consistency, winning four and losing four of their last eight. They lost out on promotion in the play-offs in the last two seasons and their pedigree as a top-six Championship outfit has made them popular with punters.
Eighth placed Wolves are just four points behind Black Country rivals and current leaders West Brom. Mick McCarthy's outfit have won four on the bounce and trade at 6.2 to be promoted, despite not being in the top six since early November.
Wolves beat Leeds United on Saturday and, as tight as the relegation situation is, the form of Dennis Wise' men suggests time is running out for them to avoid a second relegation in four years. They have won three, drawn three and lost nine of their last 15.
Leeds finished fifth last season, missing out on promotion in the play-offs, but have never looked like repeating that form this time around. They have been in the bottom half since early September and have been in the relegation places since late November. They trade at 1.75 to be relegated.
No goals in three and 18 scored at home in 17 matches tells the story of a team in trouble and it appears that their clashes with fellow strugglers Luton Town and Southend United next month are now must win games.
Southend have been in the drop zone even longer than Leeds, and the Shrimpers - champions of League One last term - have had a season that has touched the extremes.
A 5-0 hammering of Queens Park Rangers earlier this month has been followed by three straight defeats, whilst a spell of 17 league games without a win did not prevent them reaching the quarter-finals of the League Cup, in a run that included a win over Manchester United. They currently occupy 23rd place, on equal points with Leeds, and are available at 1.68 to drop straight back down to League One.
One point separates the four teams above Leeds and Southend, with Barnsley the team who have been in relegation trouble the longest. The Tykes came up with Southend last season and, after a slow start, have given themselves a good chance of survival. They have won three of their last six - all against other teams in relegation trouble - and trade at 1.8 to be relegated.
QPR have plummeted down the table, winning just three of their last 16, and failing to score in nine of those games. A scrap for survival looks to await John Gregory's men, who are available at 2.1 in the relegation market.
Hull City were winless in five before turning over Birmingham on Saturday, and the Tigers will be full of confidence for a relegation battle that they always knew they would face - they have been in the bottom six all season.
Mike Newell has seen his Luton Town side win just three of their 21 matches in a run that has left them one point clear of the relegation places. Despite being sixth from bottom they are available at 2.5 to relegated, showing that the Championship markets are just as competitive at the bottom of the table as they are the top.
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