Euro 2012: Why Betfair markets mean more than seedings

Co-hosting tournaments creates certain problems. Many are logistical and the disputes between Poland and Ukraine before the Euros over the development of infrastructure and exactly who should be doing what have been long and tedious. But there is also a practical issue to do with the tournament itself and that is that, as hosts are always seeded, the draw is skewed - particularly in a four-group tournament.

In a sense, the genuine top two seeds - Spain - 4.03/1 to be champions - and the Netherlands 8.415/2 - were disadvantaged by being given the same seeding as Poland 50.049/1 and Ukraine 55.054/1. They knew they were going to get one of Germany 4.216/5, Italy 15.529/2, England 12.523/2 and Russia 2827/1, whereas those four teams from Pot 2 knew they had a 50-50 chance of missing the two really big guns. The problems was there in Euro 2008, but the way the draw has fallen this time round makes the skew particularly clear: of the top nine European teams in the world rankings, seven are squeezed in to two groups.

In that regard England lucked out. They are ranked seventh and are alongside the teams ranked 16th (France), 17th (Sweden) and 50th Ukraine. That's not to say it's an easy group, far from it, for France are probably undervalued as a result of their atrocious form under Raymond Domenech, while Ukraine both have home advantage and are disadvantaged in the way the rankings are calculated by not having played any competitive fixtures. But it probably is fair to say England got the third hardest group.

The easiest, by some margin, is Group A. I've interviewed players from each of Poland, Russia, Greece and the Czech Republic over the past month and all four have said essentially the same thing: it's a very even group and anything could happen. Perhaps the most intriguing team, though, the side who could offer value, are the nominal outsiders the Czech Republic who are 5.04/1 to win the group and 2.47/5 to qualify.

In 2004, the Czech Republic were one of the delights of the European Championship. They played neat, sparkling football, kept conceding early goals and kept winning. They trailed in all three of their group games and ended up winning them all, the most memorable being the 3-2 victory over the Netherlands, in which they were 2-0 behind after 19 minutes. They cruised by Denmark in the quarter-final, the combination of the giant striker Jan Koller and the rapid Milan Baros scoring all the goals in their 3-0 win before they, as so many others, found themselves frustrated by Greece and lost 1-0 on the silver goal rule in the semi-final.

That seemed to herald a golden future. Koller was ageing but Baros is still only 30. Tomas Rosicky, who pulled the strings in midfield, was only 23, Petr Cech was 22, Zdenek Grygera 24, Jaroslav Plasil 22. It was a team that looked as though it could go on to great things; probably, in fact, the best team in that tournament in terms of the general quality of football played. But they were overpowered by Ghana in the World Cup two years later and, as Rosicky suffered injury after injury, their form declined with his.

His recent upsurge in form with Arsenal - which really became noticeable from February - had been signaled a few months earlier when he was playing for his country. Rosicky had been listless in qualifying but suddenly caught light in the play-off victory over Montenegro. The suspension of Tomas Hubschman - another of the 2004 squad - had forced Michal Bilek to rejig his midfield for the play-off. Petr Jarocik was moved into the middle of midfield, his preferred position, with Jaroslav Plasil dropping deeper. That in turn liberated Rosicky, who revelled in the creative role in the 4-2-3-1

Defensively, the Czechs were sound throughout qualifying; the issue for them is whether they can get a gifted midfield to click. It did against Montenegro, but in the 1-1 friendly draw against Ireland in February they were back to the old stodginess. In the easiest group, though, if they can find their rhythm, they could be the side to emerge from nowhere to pose a real threat. Certainly 110.00109/1 for them to be champions looks enticingly long.