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Euro 2008

Euro 2008: What can we learn from previous years?

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Alsy looks ahead to next summer's big one...

The European Championships often seem to defy the formbook. It's a fledging tournament in comparison to the World Cup (only four teams qualified for the finals before 1980, then it was eight teams before expanding to 16 in 1996). While 'big' football nations (apart from England) have all registered victories it remains the most open of tournaments when it comes to picking a winner.

The first major upset was in Sweden in 1992 when Demark replaced a Yugoslavia still at war. To say they were rank outsiders would be an understatement but they beat the hugely talented Dutch holders on penalties in the semi-final before defeating a unified Germany 2-0 in the final. Did I mention the Germans we're world champions at the time?

It's difficult to explain how or why Denmark managed to pull off the greatest shock of the modern football era. They didn't play the best football and often rode their luck but they were hard to beat and took their chances when it really mattered. No one saw them coming (probably because they weren't even supposed to be at the tournament in the first place) until it was too late.

Football was coming home in England in 1996, so naturally the Germans won the Championships. The German side was talented but started the tournament tentatively. Was Klinsmann fit? Were Sammer and Hassler too old? Had Vogts lost the plot? They beat a talented Czech side that included Nedvěd, Poborský and Berger when the goals (one of them 'Golden') of substitute Bierhoff proved decisive.

France's victory in 2000 was predicable insofar as they were reining world champions. Boasting creativity and experience (including Zidane, Vieira, Blanc, Thuram and Henry) France confirmed their status as the World's best team with a side that had no weaknesses. They were expected to repeat the success four years later in Portugal until Greece produced another Euro shocker to win the title.

When the Greeks beat Portugal 2-1 in the opening game of the 2004 tournament everyone knew that their impressive qualifying campaign (losing two matches before winning six without conceding) was no fluke. Having said that, few people outside of Greece, expected them to win even when they beat a disappointing France 1-0 in the quarter-finals.
Rehhagel's disciplined side were the perfect examples of a 'team' ethic as they defeated the Czech Republic 1-0 in the semis before heaping more shame on the host nation with a 1-0 victory to lift the trophy.

Greece's win followed no discernable pattern, save to say they were a well-drilled team who played the most consistent football throughout the tournament. Now you can back Greece [30.0] to retain their title but I suspect that many will look to more established teams like the young, emerging Germans [5.6] who have arguably enjoyed the best qualifying campaign, or reigning World Champions, Italy [9.0].

One school of thought suggests that qualifying is largely irrelevant as tournament football bears little resemblance to qualifying games spread over 20 months. On the other hand carrying confidence into a tournament carried Greece all the way.

The truth is somewhere in between meaning that strength in depth becomes vitally important. Cleans sheets and flowing football are less important than taking your chances and remaining in the mix regardless of form. By the time you reach the semi-finals anything can happen.

As seen in the various World Cup finals, Italy and Germany usually raise their games during tournaments. France [11.0] seems undervalued considering the talent in the squad but I would back Portugal [10.5] to win with an experienced coach and a host of young talent lead by Cristiano Ronaldo.

They've come close at recent tournaments and this latest crop of young players may not be too consistent but they match any side for pure talent. In a tournament that often delivers surprises I'm predicting another but who do you think will lift the trophy next summer?