Wimbledon Men's Semi-Final Tip: Keep defending champion onside at 6/5

Medvedev win
A man with a plan: Can Medvedev find the game plan to upset Carlos Alcaraz?

In the men's semi-finals tennis tipster Gavin Mair has found a value way to back defending champion Alcaraz at odds-against...

  • Alcaraz up and down

  • Don't write off Daniil

  • Russian's tactical nous

Carlos Alcaraz moved through the gears in his defeat of Tommy Paul on Tuesday moving the defending champion a match closer to a Sunday of Spanish sporting success.

His compatriots have booked a spot in the Euro 2024 final, where they will start as favourites to defeat England. Check out Betfair's Euros content here.

Alcaraz can book a spot in the Wimbledon final with a win over Daniil Medvedev, in what is a repeat semi-final fixture from 12 months ago. On that day Alcaraz eased through for the loss of nine games, but I expect this to be a closer fought affair.

Not as sharp

It would be fair to suggest that Alcaraz has not quite reached the heights of his 2023 run. He has dropped sets against Paul and Ugo Humbert, and was pushed to five by Frances Tiafoe.

However, despite the inconsistencies Alcaraz has prevailed, each time focusing his mind to unleash a flurry of unstoppable attacking genius to remove the match win from the horizon of a series of in-form talents.

Alcaraz is the player to beat on natural surfaces having notched a first French Open title last month to add to his Wimbledon crown last year.

He enjoys the canvas provided to him by both clay and grass that gets the most out of a patchwork game complete with a range of attacking weaponry that in my opinion no other player on tour can curtail should he reach his top levels.

In the Paul victory especially Alcaraz's forehand was doing untold damage and should he click into that gear today against Medvedev it will be difficult to stop him.

Under the radar

Daniil Medvedev has been showing exceptional form at recent Slams but rarely tops most people's lists of the most likely winners.

In addition to this year's Australian Open final, he also reached the title decider at last season's US Open and the semi-final of Wimbledon.

The Russian has a very high floor, and he has proven that his game can bring him into contention for major titles time and time again.

However, the former world number one lacks the higher gears of an Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner or Novak Djokovic and that is the greatest reason for him currently possessing a solitary Grand Slam title in his collection.

Medvedev has once again gone under the radar at this Grand Slam, making smooth progress through a draw that has not been particularly taxing.

He was able to hurdle the potentially tough grass court assignment of Jan-Lennard Struff, before he benefited from a Grigor Dimitrov injury. The Russian did however impressively see off world number one Jannik Sinner. Although to be fair the Italian was under the weather requiring a medical time out, complaining of dizziness.

Things may have fallen into place for Medvedev but he should not be written off. He has beaten Alcaraz twice before and although the Spaniard has had the better of their head to head this will be far from easy.

A man with a plan

Medvedev might also have worked out some ideas. In their most recent meeting at a Grand Slam, last season's four set victory for the Russian in New York, Medvedev unexpectedly picked apart the Alcaraz forehand. It should be noted that Alcaraz was also defending champion at the US Open and there is an element of deja-vu about today's meeting.

The Russian is type-cast as a serve and defend style player but he does regularly throw in a surprising approach to catch an opponent off guard. Thinking back to the Australian Open final, the world expected Jannik Sinner to coast to victory - as was becoming the norm in their head to head - but Medvedev burst out of the traps with a hugely aggressive effort that stunned his opponent in the first two sets.

Unfortunately, Medvedev run out of steam to concede his two set lead. He had been on court for over 24 hours in total across that tournament so it was no wonder his batteries ran flat. This Wimbledon run has barely drained that battery.

In the most recent tour match at Indian Wells Medvedev may have lost but he was in experimental mood, trying out different ideas and it wouldn't surprise me if he has saved something up his sleeve to trouble Alcaraz now that we are in a Grand Slam setting.

Despite the ups and downs that Alcaraz is showing in his matches and the potential Medvedev chaos factor I still expect the Spaniard will show enough strong moments to beat Medvedev here. 6/52.20 on Alcaraz to win and both players to win a set therefore holds appeal.

Now read Wimbledon latest tips and previews

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