Wimbledon Day 3 Tips: How to back Sinner at 1/1 to win Derby d'Italia

• Draw neither wanted

• Berrettini can push Sinner

• World number one likely has too much

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Jannik Sinner has been the player to beat in men's tennis this season.

Since winning a first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open the Italian has confirmed his position as top dog by rising to the world's number one ranked player and bringing home titles from Rotterdam, Miami and Halle.

It is understandable that Sinner is positioned as the outright favourite to win Wimbledon. However, to do so he must hurdle the significant challenge of compatriot Matteo Berrettini at an early stage.

Quality match-up

In my pre-draw outright preview I identified Berrettini as a joker in the pack. He's a proven commodity on a grass court and in my eyes a legitimate contender to win this title.

Why then is this a second round fixture?

Berrettini has had a horrid time over the past two seasons that has melted his ranking from a career high of six, collecting injuries in the same way that Sinner has done accolades.

That said there is no doubting his talent nor potential and he plays his very best tennis on grass. He was Wimbledon finalist, leading Novak Djokovic by a set in 2021, and has bagged multiple grass court titles in Stuttgart and Queens.

Despite only being fit enough to appear at a handful of events this season, Berrettini has performed well winning in Casablanca and reaching another final in Stuttgart.

His serve is a bomb, and his forehand devastating. In his first round victory over Marton Fucsovics, he demonstrated a range of explosive shots that his opponent could not contain.

Is the door ajar?

Obviously Sinner is working from a different stratosphere than Fucsovics. He has yet to lose a match on a grass court this season but his performances have not been wholly convincing.

In four of his six grass court matches, Sinner has dropped a set and against a lower calibre player than today's opponent. He split sets with Tallon Griekspoor, Fabian Marozsan and Jan-Lennard Struff before taking his eye off the ball in his first Wimbledon match against Yannick Hanfmann.

My impression of this is that Sinner's serial dominance comes from having full control over the baseline exchanges - he can dictate matches far easier on other surfaces. The dynamics of grass court tennis means it takes only a brief lapse in focus to drop a set in which you have otherwise been the marginally better player.

Sinner all but confirmed this theory after defeating Hanfmann saying, "This is a grass court, sometimes you cannot control everything, but I felt like he was pushing on a lot of balls and when you get down a break immediately, it's also tough to recover."

Regardless of these dips Sinner has yet to taste defeat and I fancy that overall he may prove too strong for Berrettini. However, it would not stun me if it is Berrettini that is the winner here.

Berrettini is renowned for his bravery in tight moments of the match, and if Sinner does leave the door ajar the 2021 runner-up will happily walk through it.

I don't think Berrettini's lack of time on court should be ignored. Although he's accumulated plenty of matches during the grass season, his appearance in Stuttgart was his first on tour for two months.

It doesn't seem like his body has fully adapted to the physical demands quite yet as he required an injury time out for a back complaint versus Fucsovics.

Berrettini is however, fully aware that he has at least a puncher's chance here. Assessing this match he said, "I'll enter the court with my head held high to hurt him in tennis, I hope people can have fun. I don't think Jannik is too happy to meet me so soon either."

Overall I expect Sinner will survive but with my outright position will be cheering on the Berrettini win. A sensible bet to have in this match is to back Sinner to win and both players to win a set at 1/12.00

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