WTA US Open Day 4 Tips: Williams now into seventh favourite for the title

Williams continues as big names fall

Maria Sakkari, Leylah Fernandez and Beatriz Haddad Maia were three of the market leaders to exit the tournament on day three, with Sakkari eliminated as a solid pre-match favourite against Xiyu Wang, while Fernandez and Haddad Maia fell at the hands of very strong opposition - Ludmilla Samsonova and Bianca Andreescu.

However, the biggest story on Wednesday night was the continued progression of Serena Williams, who defeated the second seed Anett Kontaveit in three sets. After Serena went into the decider at 7-6 2-6, many would have been forgiven for thinking that Kontaveit would have powered through into a clinical victory, but the American legend had other ideas in a match where each player won the same amount of points.

Ajla Tomljanovic in round three awaits, with Williams quite incredibly into 19.018/1 and now the seventh favourite to win the title.

Swiatek should take care of Stephens tonight

Still tournament favourite, and strengthening her position at the top of the outright market is Iga Swiatek, trading at 4.94/1 currently to be celebrating with the trophy next Saturday.

Prior to that, though, the Pole must get past the inconsistent Sloane Stephens tonight in a repeat of their last 32 clash in Cincinnati several weeks ago.

That day, Swiatek edged a tight two-setter 6-4 7-5, with her serve being the main factor in determining the outcome. She was priced at around the 1.201/5 mark, and is very slightly bigger at 1.241/4 today - a line that is difficult to dispute.

Swiatek has won around 6% more service and 6% more return points on hard court this season, so it evidently a much more accomplished player on the surface. It would be a real shock if Stephens eliminated the top seed.

Thankfully, there are many more competitive matches on the women's schedule today, compared to the men's, so let's run through a few of them.

Zheng to get the job done over Potapova

We were on Qinwen Zheng for her underdog win over Jelena Ostapenko on Tuesday, and the Chinese talent has the opportunity as a 1.645/8 favourite this time against Anastasia Potapova. Eight of Potapova's last ten events have ended up in defeat after being a pre-match favourite - is she consistently over-rated by the market? Zheng's stronger serve makes her look a justified favourite here.

Sabalenka favourite to revenge Australian Open loss

Kaia Kanepi beat Aryna Sabalanka in the Australian round four earlier in the season, as a solid underdog, while tournament sixth seed Sabalenka having the opportunity to make amends tonight. On hard court this year, there's not much between them stats-wise, so I'm expecting another tight match in New York tonight. Sabalenka is the 1.538/15 favourite to progress.

Bouzkova could edge serve-oriented Czech clash

Finally, Marie Bouzkova is favourite over Maria Pliskova, having beaten her Czech compatriot on clay in Madrid earlier in the year. Pliskova is now outside the top 20, having dropped further down the rankings of late, and will be looking to make amends here against Bouzkova tonight.

Pliskova's run to the semi-final of Toronto at the start of August was the first time that she'd won three matches in a row in an event since on clay in May in Strasbourg, so despite being rather serve-oriented, she does lack slightly in consistency these days.

I'm interested to see how these two players match up. Bouzkova was injured in Cincinnati a couple of weeks back, but does have markedly better hard court data this season. One thing I am expecting, though, is for the match to be serve-oriented, so we could be in for a high variance encounter decided by one or a couple of key points.