US Open Men's Singles Day Four Tips: Murray's back but Ruusuvuori is the bet

Kwon and Nakashima fall away against big names

After a solid start, Soon-woo Kwon didn't get the job done for us on the game handicap on Wednesday night against Denis Shapovalov. We were pretty unlucky considering the Canadian saved 6/7 break points and only won 19 more points in the entire match.

Kwon performed pretty solidly and looks to have a decent future at this level. Another young player who is likely to have a decent future is Brandon Nakashima, who really pushed Alexander Zverev in the first two sets of their clash, before the German eased to a 3-1 win with a relatively facile final two sets. Keep an eye out for both of these talents in the not too distant future.

Ruusuvuori with data edge over Ruud

Another young player who I think has a big future is Emil Ruusuvuori, and the Finn did well to get the better of Aljaz Bedene on Tuesday. Today, he faces Casper Ruud, who also needed five sets to progress, after defeating home player Mackenzie McDonald.

Ruud, at this stage of his career, is something of a clay-court specialist, and so far has uninspiring hard court numbers. This is of contrast to Ruusuvuori, who has dominated on hard courts at lower levels, and looks much better suited to progression in these conditions currently.

My numbers suggest Ruusuvuori should be a stronger favourite than the market expects today, with my model pricing him at 1.351/3, rather shorter than the market does, at 1.608/13. There would also be some potential to look at him giving up 3.5 games - the game handicap market is yet to settle, but this should do so at around 1.855/6.

Ernesto Escobedo was a young player of talent several years ago but appears to have struggled to kick on, although he looks a little value at 1.9620/21 over Salvatore Caruso. Both players are yet to make a major impression on the main tour, but Escobedo's numbers at lower levels are a little more impressive.

Murray looks a big price if fit

The other spot I want to discuss in a little depth is Andy Murray over Felix Auger-Aliassime, but there are several caveats here. Murray, at first glance, looks big as a 2.789/5 underdog here. Firstly, Murray's recent hard court data isn't of a superb sample size, but also the nature of his five-set win over Yoshihito Nishioka in round one makes me wonder how much energy he will have left for this match.

Having said that, while Auger-Aliassime didn't play five sets, his match against Thiago Monteiro - one he was expected to win easily - lasted almost four hours, with three sets going to tiebreaks, so both players may come into this one a little tired. It will be interesting to see how Murray, 13 years the senior to Auger-Aliassime, will fare here.

In other matches, Daniil Medvedev is an overwhelming favourite over our hero from Tuesday, Christopher O'Connell, while Dominic Thiem is similarly priced against Sumit Nagal.

Roberto Bautista-Agut is a little bigger at 1.132/15 for his clash with another talented young player, Miomir Kecmanovic, but here I think the market is taking a chance. Kecmanovic is a huge upgrade on both O'Connell and Nagal, and could well push the Spaniard much closer than the market anticipates.

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