US Open Women's Singles Day Four Tips: Sabalenka value for all-Belarus clash

Kostyuk yields a Wednesday winner

Marta Kostyuk got the job done for us on Wednesday with a victory over Anastasija Sevastova, but there were plenty of shocks on day three.

We saw the exits of Dayana Yastremska, Karolina Pliskova, Elena Rybakina and Marketa Vondrousova on day three, with Yastremska and Pliskova particularly surprising for different reasons.

Firstly, Yastremska's straightforward defeat was a surprise given opponent Madison Brengle's poor lead retention data, but Pliskova's was more so because Caroline Garcia has not impressed in the last year or so, and I thought the top seed would have had a decent edge in a serve-orientated battle.

Stephens vulnerable against Govortsova

Moving on to today's schedule, there are a couple of value spots which I think are worth discussing. Firstly, Sloane Stephens is in a similar position to the aforementioned Garcia, in that her numbers across the last 12-18 months are not strong at all.

The American faces the veteran, Olga Govortsova, today, with Govortsova not having made much of an impact on the main tour in the last few years. However, she's got decent enough results at a lower level, and it's a mark of how poorly Stephens has played in that time period that the market only makes her a 1.728/11 favourite against an opponent rarely seen at this level.

Even this price looks short on Stephens - she will need to do a lot more to convince me that she is remotely close to the level displayed when she lifted the trophy here in 2017 and when reaching the final of the French Open in 2018.

Sabalenka can win all-Belarus clash

For today's recommendation, I want to look at the all-Belarussian clash between Aryna Sabalenka and Victoria Azarenka. The market is finding it tricky to split the duo, with Azarenka the 1.9520/21 favourite, but my model actually makes Sabalenka a 1.758/11 favourite to take this.

The market is influenced by some recency, given Azarenka's title at the Western & Southern Open last week, but over the last 12-18 months it's Sabalenka with the better data. Sabalenka's record against top 50 opposition is one of the best on tour, running at 19-5 across the last 12 months - very impressive indeed.

She looks like having an extra gear available when required against high-level opponents and only poor break point performance saw her match against Oceane Dodin on Tuesday have what looked like a close scoreline.

A victory for Sabalenka over a former world number one from her home country would be a decent statement - and give her great heart in what looks the toughest bracket in the bottom quarter of the draw.

Vekic and Muchova could struggle as heavy favourites

There are a number of heavy favourites on today's schedule, with Donna Vekic and Karolina Muchova looking the most vulnerable - there simply doesn't look like an absurdly huge ability differential between them and opponents Patricia Maria Tig, and Anna Kalinskaya.

We also see Serena Williams back in action, taking on Margarita Gasparyan, while Sofia Kenin faces the talented Leylah Anne Fernandez. British eyes will be on Jo Konta, who is a 1.162/13 favourite to get the better of Sorana Cirstea.

***

Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings