Tennis Tips

Australian Open Quarter-Final Preview and Tip: How to back Alcaraz to beat Djokovic at 7/5

Djokovic Melbourne
Ten time champion Djokovic will have his hands full with Carlos Alcaraz

The most anticipated match at the Australian Open is finally here as Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz face off for a semi-final spot. Tennis tipster Gavin Mair explains how to get some extra juice on an Alcaraz victory...


When the Australian Open men's draw was made there was one potential quarter-final clash that stood out above all the others.

Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic were unfortunate to be drawn together in the third quarter of the draw and both have made light work of their run to the last eight to set Tuesday's headline match.

Alcaraz has been installed as a 1/21.50 favourite, with Djokovic a respectable 13/82.63 to advance. Although this is a tricky match to analyse I do generally agree with the suggested outcomes, and I propose a bet to get some extra value when backing the Spaniard.

Elsewhere, Alexander Zverev is 3/101.30 to get the better of the USA's Tommy Paul 12/53.40, who will become a top ten player at the end of this tournament for the first time in his career. Zverev has been all but unplayable so far, albeit in a very soft section of the draw.

This could be a lot closer than the odds imply as Paul has won both their previous encounters, although this will be their first for three years.

In the women's draw Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff are a match away from a tantalising semi-final showdown, and both are short odds to make the final four against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (who landed another winner for this column yesterday) and Paula Badosa respectively.


Alcaraz favouritism goes against data

If presented only with the facts you might think it illogical to bet for Alcaraz as the favourite in this match.

Firstly, Djokovic leads their head to head by four wins to three, and has won each of their hard court matches.

Secondly, they have both shown recently they can beat each other. Their two 2024 meetings were significant with Alcaraz bagging a second Wimbledon title by crushing Djokovic in straight sets in the final, before Djokovic was able to claim some revenge by scoring the gold medal at the Paris Olympics - and with it the last remaining accolade missing from his otherwise complete trophy cabinet.

Thirdly, Djokovic is marginally ahead of Alcaraz in terms of his data performance on a hard court over the past 12 months.

For those putting all their faith in numbers then you can't look past Djokovic.


Match on Alcaraz racket

The problem with looking at the Djokovic versus Alcaraz match only through a data prism is that we are not comparing like for like.

Djokovic is a player that is highly consistent on this surface, albeit he is now noticeably less effective than his prime years. Even at 37-years old he is statistically the second best player on a hard court, behind Jannik Sinner.

Alcaraz on the other hand is an enigma. He is highly creative on the court and has blown hot and cold in the past. When he is playing his best he is for my money the best men's player on the planet, as evidenced by winning all three matches he played against Sinner in 2024 when the Italian was a clear and deserving world number one ranked player.

This match is on the Alcaraz racket, and will be determined by how good a performance he delivers on the day.

Carlitos is the player who has to take risks and try to decide points on his own terms, while Djokovic will prioritise solidity and try to neutralise the Alcaraz weaponry.

That is easier said than done, although Djokovic did a very good job in his last two Australian Open matches to smother the huge attacking games of Czech duo Tomas Machac and Jiri Lehecka.

Unlike the Czech guys, Alcaraz brings a whole mix of variety to his game in addition to pure ball striking power. For all Djokovic's nous it will still be about what Alcaraz delivers.


Alcaraz not really tested

My biggest concern before this match is that we do not have a complete report card for how Alcaraz is performing right now. He has reached the quarter-final without breaking much of a sweat, yet it would have been a surprise if he didn't considering the limited opposition he has encountered along the way.

It is therefore difficult to say with complete confidence that Alcaraz is playing at an amazing level. But then again I would suggest the same rule is true for Sinner and Zverev who have reached the latter stages without much of a fuss. Djokovic has had the harder draw and come through tests convincingly, although he also didn't need to raise his level significantly.

I expect that Djokovic will give his all in this match and I hope he can push Alcaraz into playing his best tennis. Their Wimbledon final last year was a damp squib as Alcaraz led Novak on a merry dance winning a completely one-sided match.

It may have been the case that the Serbian was uncompetitive due to the knee injury that had an impact throughout that tournament, but I think this is a generous opinion given the general decline that could be observed in Djokovic's level across the whole season.

People often forget that Alcaraz is still only 21-years old and is still to reach something like his peak level. He is prone to inconsistency from match to match and from set to set. Perhaps consistency will become an area that Alcaraz can improve in 2025, but until proven otherwise we have to take into account his habit to show highs and lows over the course of a match.

Given all the evidence in Djokovic's favour I think he is capable of winning at least a set in this contest, but I have faith in Alcaraz playing to a good standard.

I therefore suggest to back an Alcaraz victory and for Djokovic to win a set at 7/52.40.


Now read Ultimate Guide to Australian Open 2025: Betting odds, schedule, how to watch


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