ATP Finals Preview and Tip: Sinner to beat games total at 11/10

• Sinner's dominant year

• Fritz worthy finalist

• Under 21.5 games the value at 11/102.11

Jannik Sinner will end the 2024 season as he started it, by winning on a hard court.

The Italian announced his domination of the tour by winning the Australian Open at the start of the year, and since then has been a cut above the rest on the hard courts.

Sinner has long since secured the season end number ranking, and victory over Taylor Fritz in front of his home Turin audience will provide the cherry on top of the cake for his outstanding season.

It has felt like a coronation all week, with the great and the good of Italian sport all present courtside to watch Sinner confirm his status as the best men's player on the planet.

Jannik has cut through his opposition like a knife through butter and it is difficult to imagine Fritz upsetting the odds. Sinner is a heavy 1/81.12 favourite to win this match against an opponent he beat with plenty of room to spare only a couple of days ago.

Fritz has earned his final spot

American Fritz is enjoying a career moment. As a result of his well-earned appearance in this final he will finish the year at a career high ranking of four in the world.

It has been a strong end to the season for Fritz, who made his first Grand Slam final at the US Open before a semi-final showing in Shanghai and this latest run in Turin.

Along the way he has proven tough to beat with defeats on those tournaments at the hands of Sinner and Novak Djokovic. Fritz also lost in the first round of Tokyo and Paris, but he was clearly playing those events without too much intensity or practice under his belt.

Fritz is a deserving world number four, having developed a good habit of grinding out results in tightly contested matches.

Most significantly he has found a way to victory over Alexander Zverev four times this season, with his most recent win in yesterday's semi-final.

It was a match that encapsulated their battles this year - closely fought but Fritz edged the victory. Even though both players won the same number of points over the course of the contest it was Fritz who won the points that mattered, comfortably winning the deciding set tie-break.

While that victory is commendable, defeating Sinner is a whole different level and Fritz has been a clear second best to the Italian in their recent meetings.

Relentless Sinner

Against Zverev, Fritz is comfortable hanging with the steady German in long, protracted rallies. His serve is every bit as strong as Zverev's and both can happily grind out points until the other makes the error.

Fritz knows how to exploit the weaknesses in Zverev's game but these weaknesses are far less obvious in Sinner's relentless approach.

Sinner plays every shot with purpose, unlike Zverev who is guilty of playing passively at times in a hope his steadiness and strong movement will outlast opposition. Sinner is metronomic, hitting each shot with consistent power and depth that no player other than the artistic Carlos Alcaraz has found a remedy against in the big hard court matches of 2024.

Highlighting Sinner's ability in the key moments after the Italian's win on Tuesday Fritz said, "Jannik played much better in crucial moments. That's the real difference in this match, that's why he's had such a crazy year, and that's why he's the number 1 in the world."

Sinner said of their most recent meeting, "It was a tough match. We've gotten to know each other very well. He was very aggressive, and I was too, but I managed to serve well in the important moments. I was struggling to return his serve, but I'm happy with how I handled the situation. The crowd helped a lot. It's obviously a very special week for me."

Comfortable Sinner win on the cards

While I can understand that Fritz interprets that Sinner is only bettering him in key moments, it is the outcome of Sinner's relentless quality throughout the match. Fritz has yet to prove he can match that standard throughout the course of a set.

Across the five sets they've contested at the US Open and the Tour Finals not one has made it as far as a tiebreak. Sinner has created chances to break and taken them before the shootout situation of a level set.

There is a value bet to back this outcome for this match too. Under 21.5 total games is priced at 11/102.11 and would land should Sinner record a comfortable 6/4 6/4 win or even a 7/5 6/3 result should Fritz keep it competitive an extra couple of games.

Sinner has a handle on Fritz and there is no logical reason why this meeting will be any different.

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