ATP Basel Tips: Cressy and Stricker look set for tie breaks again

• Cressy and Stricker played three tie breaks in their last clash

• Stricker with the home advantage this time

• Shapovalov also looks short in price against Rodionov

We went one win/one loss for a slight profit on Monday when Jack Draper and Carlos Alcaraz went the distance to reward over 2.5 set backers after Filip Misolic had failed against Francisco Cerundolo.

It was a tough day for underdog backers, with only one winning all day across both venues - and of course that one was my outright in Basel, Marin Cilic, who served for the match, had two match points and lost.

The first bet on Tuesday that stands out to me is to take Dominic Stricker to win the opening set on a tie break against Maxime Cressy at odds of 5.04/1.

We profited from this pair going over 1.5 tie breaks when they met on the grass of Stuttgart in the summer and it seems very likely that tie breaks will be involved again in this indoor hard meeting in Basel.

That day in Germany, Stricker got a little lucky (as did we with our tie breaks bet) when Cressy failed to serve the match out at a set and *6-5 up, but it seems likely that Stricker will be the player with more motivation on Tuesday.

He's been in good form lately, too, with a run to the last-16 as a qualifier in Stockholm last week, where he beat Botic van de Zandschulp, and he made the quarter finals at home in Geneva last season, beating Marin Cilic and Marton Fucsovics, so he's shown no fear in front of home fans.

Cressy's season has tailed off lately, with just two wins in his last eight matches, so I'm happy to take Stricker as the winner of a tie break opening set, something that seems highly likely given the stats of the pair on the main tour.

Coincidentally, Stricker and Cressy met in the doubles on Monday and that match went 6-7, 7-6, 12-10 in favour of Cressy, so they still haven't played a non-tie break set against each other.

McDonald may not be fully fit against Molcan

Elsewhere in Basel, Alex Molcan is a very possible underdog winner against Mackenzie McDonald, with the latter struggling badly with what looked like a back injury at the end of his narrow defeat to Matteo Berrettini in Naples on Saturday.

It's a quick turnaround for McDonald and he's played a lot of tennis lately, so Molcan may well be the fresher player, but the odds reflect that somewhat, with Molcan a 2.486/4 chance when he beat McDonald in Montreal in August.

Molcan is yet to win in three attempts on indoor hard at main level and he could break his duck on Tuesday, but I'm not wild about the price of 2.255/4.

Wawrinka price not tempting against Ruud

If Stan Wawrinka's body and general fitness allow it he could do something against Casper Ruud, but at this stage of his career I'd want bigger than 3.052/1.

Stan was priced up at 6.86/1 to beat Daniil Medvedev in Metz and given that his last three matches have been losses to Alexander Bublik, Adrian Mannarino and Richard Gasquet I think 3.052/1 to beat Ruud is short.

Rodionov fair value versus hit and miss Shapovalov

Over in Vienna, the most likely of the underdogs on Tuesday might well be Jurij Rodionov against Denis Shapovalov.

Rodionov beat Shapo at this very tournament at this exact stage in 2020 when he was priced up at around the 6.16129/25 mark and he's not quite as big today, but he still may offer some value against the inconsistent Canadian.

Shapovalov won only 37% of his second serve points that day in Vienna against Rodionov (Rodionov won 68%) and while some of that was due to another awful serving day from Shapo (10 double faults) the Austrian will fancy this.

The hit and miss Shapovalov has won only six of his 24 matches played against top-150 ranked opponents since the Rome Masters in straight sets (25%), yet we're expected to back him to win 2-0 today at 1.728/11 (an implied probability of 58).

He's also won only six of his 30 main level matches against left-handers ranked inside the top-150 (20%) and Rodionov should be good enough and motivated enough to at least make this tough for Shapovalov.

So, two bets today: one point lay of Shapovalov to win 2-0 (or back Rodionov to win a set) and half a point on Stricker 7-6 in set one.