Second round action at the French Open gets underway on Wednesday, with 16 matches on the men's singles schedule. Dan Weston looks at where the value lies on day four...
"Djere has shown far more evidence of being comfortable on clay and has markedly better surface numbers - plus Kecmanovic's only clay wins this year were against players ranked outside the top 100 in Belgrade in April."
Brooksby helps us hit a hat-trick of consecutive men's winners
We hit our hat-trick in the men's singles with our third consecutive daily recommendation winning, with Jenson Brooksby keeping it close enough as a big underdog to cover the game handicap line against Aslan Karatsev, losing 3-6 4-6 4-6 to the Russian but getting within the 7.5 game line.
There were some shocks, though, on day three, with Andrey Rublev and Felix Auger-Aliassime suffering defeats as heavy favourites against Jan-Lennard Struff and Andreas Seppi, respectively, but Rafa Nadal and Novak Djokovic, unsurprisingly, progressed in straight sets into round two.
Medvedev could be vulnerable against Paul
The tournament moves into the round two stage today and there is action from the bottom half of the draw on day four. We have to endure more of the same in terms of big names having theoretical mismatches, with the likes of Alexander Zverev, Roberto Bautista-Agut, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Carreno-Busta all being priced around 1.051/20 or below to make round three. This makes the evening schedule in particular a little dull, although there could be some shock potential in the Tommy Paul versus Daniil Medvedev clash. Medvedev, who isn't a fan of clay, could be vulnerable as the 1.3130/100 favourite against a decent player on the surface.
Djere again looking like value
On the opening day, we picked out Laslo Djere against Corentin Moutet as our value selection and the Serbian got the job done in four sets in what was a match with a plentiful supply of break point chances. Today, he faces Miomir Kecmanovic in round two after his fellow Serb snapped a four-match losing streak on clay (all in straight sets) to get the better of Dan Evans in round one, also in four sets.
Djere is 1.738/11 to get the win, which looks big to me. Djere has shown far more evidence of being comfortable on clay and has markedly better surface numbers - plus Kecmanovic's only clay wins this year were against players ranked outside the top 100 in Belgrade in April. I'm going for Djere again in our attempt to go four from four.
Fucsovics and Giron potential underdog value
Another player who looks generously priced is Marton Fucsovics at 2.1211/10 for his clash with the enigmatic Fabio Fognini. My numbers have Fucsovics as the slight favourite but we really don't know what we are likely to get with Fognini, who is capable of an extremely high peak level but isn't remotely consistent.
I also think that Marcos Giron could represent some value at 2.608/5 against the out of form Guido Pella, who hasn't won a completed match on the main tour since the French Open at the end of September last year. Pella has also retired with leg issues in two of his last four matches, and withdrew from the Rome Masters with that problem as well. The market didn't have high expectations of the Argentine in his opener against Daniel Elahi Galan in round one, pricing him at 3.505/2 but I think the market has also over-reacted by making Pella a solid favourite here.
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