Alcaraz dumped out by Dimitrov
Hurkacz anticipated to get past Marozsan
Korda the pick on Thursday
Alcaraz's shock exit opens up outright market
Grigor Dimitrov fought back from a set down to get the better of odds-on tournament favourite Carlos Alcaraz in three sets, throwing the outright market into chaos. Andrey Rublev is the marginal tournament favourite from Hubert Hurkacz, but the event is now extremely well-matched and it's very possible that we will see at least one new Masters 1000 finalist.
Experienced Hurkacz market favourite over Marozsan
Action in Shanghai gets underway later than earlier in the week, starting at 0800 UK time, and the first match sees Fabian Marozsan face Hubert Hurkacz. The higher-ranked Hurkacz is the 1.444/9 favourite to get through to the semi-finals, which looks fair enough.
Hurkacz has had decent experience towards the business end of Masters events, having now played 10 quarter-finals at this level, while Marozsan's best effort was round four in Rome earlier this season on his preferred clay - a tournament where he defeated Alcaraz on the way to that breakthrough win.
There's little doubt that the younger player Marozsan has talent and he'll be at a new career high ranking following his run here, regardless of this result, but he will need his fourth underdog win in the event to get past Hurkacz, whose higher level and experience at this stage of big tournaments should see him through.
Korda looking like value against Shelton
Following this, there's an all-American quarter-final as Ben Shelton faces Sebastian Korda. Korda is the marginal market favourite at 1.9420/21, which based on year-long hard court data looks pretty generous.
Shelton has the better serve data but Korda, who has won almost 6% more return points on the surface this year, has far better numbers on return which should be anticipated to give him the edge on break point creation.
Both players have picked up strong wins this week, with Shelton defeating Jannik Sinner and Korda getting the better of Daniil Medvedev, although Korda is yet to drop a set while Shelton has needed to fightback from a set down twice.
Overall, I think Korda should be a more solid favourite than the current market lines suggest.