Rome Masters Semi-Final Tips: Rune could get a Ruud awakening this afternoon

• Djokovic exit creates opportunities for next tier

• Ruud looking like a false underdog against Rune

• Tsitsipas/Medvedev promises to be competitive

Next tier of players fighting for Rome title

With Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic both eliminated already, the semi-finals in Rome are between the 'next tier' of players on tour, with four players ranked 3-7 in the French Open outrights competing for the Rome title. It's probably pretty likely that the winner of the event will see a shortening in their Roland Garros price, so there will be plenty of focus on that market over the coming days.

Ruud with slight clay data edge over Rune

First up is Holger Rune versus Casper Ruud, in an all-Scandinavian 'Next-Gen' clash, with Rune the 2.427/5 favourite. Interestingly, though, Ruud has won all four previous matches although they were as heavy favourite and when he enjoyed a big ranking advantage which is no longer the case. Last time out was the French Open quarter-final last year, with Ruud winning fairly comfortably in four sets and priced around the 1.501/2 mark that day.

On clay this year, Ruud actually has a slight edge on data - winning a slightly higher percentage of serve and return points - so I'm not quite sure the market price makes a lot of sense to me. Ruud has appeared a little under-rated this tournament, which we benefited from against Francisco Cerundolo in the quarter-finals. Perhaps the market has been skewed slightly from Rune's win over Djokovic on Thursday, and some pretty iffy recent form from Ruud, but those prices are tough to ignore.

Tsitsipas favourite over improving Medvedev

Similarly priced as favourite in the second semi-final is Stefanos Tsitsipas against Daniil Medvedev, in what could be a bad-tempered clash featuring two players who don't particularly have much taste for each other.

Medvedev is around 2.5 times the price of Tsitsipas for the French Open, yet is only a marginal underdog here at 2.3811/8, and it's the pre-match price which makes the most sense here. Tsitsipas has won 6% more service points on clay this year, and while Medvedev has a return edge, it's not enough to compensate.

However, Medvedev is showing an increased ability on the surface of late, so this is a foregone conclusion. He's had the better of Tsitsipas slightly in their careers so far, and this looks like a fascinating match-up of players with very contrasting styles - I'm anticipating a competitive and dramatic match.