Rome Masters Quarter-Final Tips: Medvedev short-priced against competent Hanfmann

Russian Tennis Player Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev could be tested today by Yannick Hanfmann...

There's more quarter-final action from Rome today in the men's singles, with the event now wide open following the exit of Novak Djokovic yesterday. Dan Weston returns to discuss the two matches on the schedule...

  • Djokovic shocked as preparation for Roland Garros takes a hit

  • Hanfmann capable of pushing Medvedev

  • Coric's level against Tsitsipas should demonstrate current level

Djokovic out as Rune becomes outright favourite

Tournament favourite Novak Djokovic continued his unconvincing return from elbow issues with a three-set loss to Holger Rune, leaving his French Open preparation far from ideal. We also picked up another solid win with Casper Ruud getting past Francisco Cerundolo in straight-sets, to continue our decent run over these clay Masters tournaments.

Following that win over Djokovic, Rune is trading as the 2.608/5 favourite, with Stefanos Tsitsipas 3.7511/4 and potentially going into tournament favourite should he win his quarter-final today. Ruud, plus Daniil Medvedev are marginally further behind in what is a very competitive outright market.

Hanfmann's serve should test Medvedev

Medvedev features in the opening quarter-final today, scheduled not before 1400 UK time, and faces the rank tournament outsider, qualifier Yannick Hanfmann. Medvedev being a strong pre-match favourite at 1.341/3 in the quarter-final of a medium-paced clay Masters tournament isn't something that has been seen much in the past, but with Hanfmann ranked outside the top 100, you can understand why the market has drawn these conclusions.

However, despite his lowly ranking, Hanfmann is no mug on clay. He's won 70% of his main tour matches on the surface in the last 12 months, with really decent numbers - running at over 105% combined service/return points won.

Interestingly, that's pretty similar combined data to Medvedev. Hanfmann has better serve data, while Medvedev has the return edge.

Hanfmann has picked up a number of strong underdog victories in the last few weeks, including several against top 10 opposition, and another shouldn't be considered out of the question. The +4.5 game handicap line should settle around the 1.728/11 mark on the Exchange, based on general market prices, and he should be competitive enough to cover that, if not push Medvedev even further.

Back Hanfmann +4.5 Games @


Tsitsipas with clear edge over Coric

In the night match, Tsitsipas is favourite at 1.331/3 over Borna Coric, who ended Fabian Marozsan's journey in the event on Tuesday night. Coric has actually won three of their four main tour meetings, including the last three, and his win over Tsitsipas in Vienna towards the end of last season was his last win over top 10 opposition.

Despite that, Tsitsipas has quite noticeably better clay data over the last year - winning 2% more service points and 5% more on return - so unlike Medvedev, who is priced similarly as a pre-match favourite, you can understand the market pricing more in this clash.

After breaking back into the top 20 after long-term injury, though, it will be fascinating to see how Coric competes here against a top five opponent. His run to the semi-finals in Madrid, and quarter-finals here in Rome, could signal a real upward curve in his career, which had been delayed by injury, and a positive showing against Tsitsipas today will only reinforce that notion.

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