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class="entry_header"> <h1 class="entry_header__title">Rome Masters Quarter-final Tips: Market could be punished for over-reaction on Cerundolo</h1> <ul class="entry_header__meta"> <li><a href="https://betting.betfair.com/authors/dan-weston/">Dan Weston</a></li> <li><time datetime="2023-05-17">17 May 2023</time></li> <li>3:00 min read</li> </ul> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Rome Masters Quarter-final Tips: Market could be punished for over-reaction on Cerundolo", "name": "Rome Masters Quarter-final Tips: Market could be punished for over-reaction on Cerundolo", "description": "The Rome Masters reaches the quarter-final stage today, with two matches on the men's schedule. Returning to preview two fascinating clashes is Dan Weston...", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/events/rome-masters-quarter-final-tips-market-could-be-punished-for-over-reaction-on-cerundolo-170523-778.html", "mainEntityOfPage": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/events/rome-masters-quarter-final-tips-market-could-be-punished-for-over-reaction-on-cerundolo-170523-778.html", "datePublished": "2023-05-17T09:53:00+01:00", "dateModified": "2023-05-17T10:42:00+01:00", "articleBody": "The Rome Masters reaches the quarter-final stage today, with two matches on the men's schedule. Returning to preview two fascinating clashes is Dan Weston... Djokovic into evens for the title Clay a potential leveller for Rune Cerundolo to get Ruud awakening Coric helps us to another winner We managed to pick up another winner in what is now becoming a decent couple of Masters tournaments on clay for this column, with Borna Coric ending Fabian Marozsan's dream tournament in a comeback victory. Exiting the event also were the likes of Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev plus Andrey Rublev, causing some movement in the outright market. Novak Djokovic is now trading at around even money, with Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev the other leading contenders for the title. Every other player is still in double-digit pricing. Djokovic far from dominant on clay this season Djokovic got past Cameron Norrie yesterday, with arguably the biggest drama being when the Brit's smash hit Djokovic on the leg after he had turned his back on the point, and the world number one now faces Holger Rune in today's opener. Rune's outright price is no doubt being held up by the fact he has to face Djokovic here, with Djokovic being the [1.36] favourite to make the semi-finals. Quite surprisingly, the duo have only met twice with Rune picking up a heavy underdog win at around [4.50] in the Paris Masters final at the end of last season. Djokovic and Rune have never met on clay, which to me looks a surface which is a bit of a leveller between the duo. On clay this year, Djokovic has the edge (albeit not a huge one) from a data perspective, winning around 4% more return points. How well the Serb returns today is likely to dictate plenty in terms of the match outcome, and he's hardly dominated opposition so far on the surface this year, hampered by his elbow problem. In fact, Djokovic has dropped sets in five of the seven matches he's played on clay this year, despite starting at [1.20] or below on all occasions - and often considerably shorter than that price too. In the straight-set wins, he's dropped eight and seven games respectively, which is far from the level of dominance which we are used to seeing from arguably the greatest player of all time. This will be enticing backers of Rune, who I think certainly has a chance here. However, we've already discussed him being a fair bit bigger-priced in their last meeting, so the market correction looks warranted in my view. Ruud looking like value to get revenge The night match features Casper Ruud and Francisco Cerundolo, who caused a shock yesterday with that win over Sinner in three sets. Following that, there looks to be a slight market over-reaction, and the consensus is also possibly factoring in Cerundolo's win over Ruud in Barcelona last month. However, that day, the Argentine was priced up at around [3.0], and is fair bit shorter today, currently trading at [2.50] on the Exchange. A look at the match stats from that match shows that Cerundolo's first serve was firing in that clash, with numbers far in excess of his clay data this season, leading me to believe that it is unlikely that the same will be repeated here in Rome. Ruud has far better service numbers on clay this year, and to me, looks to have a fairly significant data edge. I'm pretty surprised at this market pricing - particularly as Ruud breezed past Laslo Djere yesterday in an hour and a quarter less time than Cerundolo needed against Sinner - so Ruud is my pick for today. Back Casper Rudd to beat Francisco Cerundolo 1.66", "image":[ "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/assets_c/2022/04/Novak Djokovic Monte Carlo 2022-thumb-1280x720-153325.728x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/assets_c/2022/04/Novak Djokovic Monte Carlo 2022-thumb-1280x720-153325.547x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/assets_c/2022/04/Novak Djokovic Monte Carlo 2022-thumb-1280x720-153325.410x410.jpg" ], "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Betting.Betfair", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://betting.cdnppb.net/assets/img/betfairlogoblack.ea48b4e0.png" }, "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/" }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Dan Weston", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/authors/dan_weston" } } </script> </header> <div class="two_column_layout"> <main class="entry_main"> <div class="entry_img"> <img src="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/assets_c/2022/04/Novak Djokovic Monte Carlo 2022-thumb-1280x720-153325.728x410.jpg" srcset="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/assets_c/2022/04/Novak Djokovic Monte Carlo 2022-thumb-1280x720-153325.450x253.jpg 450w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/assets_c/2022/04/Novak Djokovic Monte Carlo 2022-thumb-1280x720-153325.600x338.jpg 600w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/assets_c/2022/04/Novak Djokovic Monte Carlo 2022-thumb-1280x720-153325.728x410.jpg 728w" alt="Serbian Tennis Player Novak Djokovic"> <figcaption class="entry_img__caption">Novak Djokovic is now around even money for the title...</figcaption> </div> <div class="entry_actions"> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBGC01B10G30A&prod=90&rfr=977218">Join</a> </div> <div> <a class="button btn--market" data-market_full="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-rome-2023/ruud-v-cerundolo-betting-32357765" href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-rome-2023/ruud-v-cerundolo-betting-32357765">View market</a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--twitter"> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?text=Rome%20Masters%20Quarter-final%20Tips%3A%20Market%20could%20be%20punished%20for%20over-reaction%20on%20Cerundolo&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Frome-masters-quarter-final-tips-market-could-be-punished-for-over-reaction-on-cerundolo-170523-778.html" target="_blank" title="Twitter"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--twitter">Twitter</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--facebook"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Frome-masters-quarter-final-tips-market-could-be-punished-for-over-reaction-on-cerundolo-170523-778.html" target="_blank" title="Facebook"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--facebook">Facebook</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--reddit"> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/submit/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Frome-masters-quarter-final-tips-market-could-be-punished-for-over-reaction-on-cerundolo-170523-778.html" target="_blank" title="Reddit"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--reddit">Reddit</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--whatsapp"> <a href="https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Frome-masters-quarter-final-tips-market-could-be-punished-for-over-reaction-on-cerundolo-170523-778.html" target="_blank" title="WhatsApp"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--whatsapp">WhatsApp</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--telegram"> <a href="https://t.me/share/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Frome-masters-quarter-final-tips-market-could-be-punished-for-over-reaction-on-cerundolo-170523-778.html&text=Rome%20Masters%20Quarter-final%20Tips%3A%20Market%20could%20be%20punished%20for%20over-reaction%20on%20Cerundolo" target="_blank" title="Telegram"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--telegram">Telegram</span></a> </div> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="#betslip">View the Betslip</a> </div> </div> <div class="entry_body has-odds"> <div class="entry_body__intro"><p>The Rome Masters reaches the quarter-final stage today, with two matches on the men's schedule. Returning to preview two fascinating clashes is Dan Weston...</p></div> <div class="entry_body__content"> <div class="editor"> <ul> <li> <h3><strong>Djokovic into evens for the title</strong></h3> </li> <li> <h3><strong>Clay a potential leveller for Rune</strong></h3> </li> <li> <h3><strong>Cerundolo to get Ruud awakening</strong></h3> </li> <hr><h2>Coric helps us to another winner</h2><p></p><p>We managed to pick up another winner in what is now becoming a decent couple of Masters tournaments on clay for this column, with Borna Coric ending Fabian Marozsan's dream tournament in a comeback victory.</p><p>Exiting the event also were the likes of Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev plus Andrey Rublev, causing some movement in the <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.213998721">outright market</a>.</p><p>Novak Djokovic is now trading at around even money, with Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev the other leading contenders for the title. Every other player is still in double-digit pricing.</p><h2>Djokovic far from dominant on clay this season</h2><p></p><p>Djokovic got past Cameron Norrie yesterday, with arguably the biggest drama being when the Brit's smash hit Djokovic on the leg after he had turned his back on the point, and the world number one now faces Holger Rune in today's opener.</p><p>Rune's outright price is no doubt being held up by the fact he has to face Djokovic here, with Djokovic being the <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-rome-2023/djokovic-v-hol-rune-betting-32357045"><b class="inline_odds" title="4/11"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.36</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">4/11</span></b></a> favourite to make the semi-finals.</p><p>Quite surprisingly, the duo have only met twice with Rune picking up a heavy underdog win at around <b class="inline_odds" title="7/2"><span class="inline_odds__main">4.50</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">7/2</span></b> in the Paris Masters final at the end of last season.</p><p>Djokovic and Rune have never met on clay, which to me looks a surface which is a bit of a leveller between the duo.</p><p><a href="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/assets_c/2022/01/Novak%20Djokovic%20victory%20fist%201280-thumb-1280x720-145656.600x338.jpg"><img alt="Thumbnail image for Novak Djokovic victory fist 1280.jpg" src="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/assets_c/2023/05/Novak%20Djokovic%20victory%20fist%201280-thumb-1280x720-145656-thumb-1280x720-186510.600x338.jpg" width="1280" height="720" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;" loading="lazy"></a></p><p>On clay this year, Djokovic has the edge (albeit not a huge one) from a data perspective, winning around 4% more return points.</p><p>How well the Serb returns today is likely to dictate plenty in terms of the match outcome, and he's hardly dominated opposition so far on the surface this year, hampered by his elbow problem.</p><p>In fact, Djokovic has dropped sets in five of the seven matches he's played on clay this year, despite starting at <b class="inline_odds" title="1/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.20</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">1/5</span></b> or below on all occasions - and often considerably shorter than that price too.</p><p>In the straight-set wins, he's dropped eight and seven games respectively, which is far from the level of dominance which we are used to seeing from arguably the greatest player of all time.</p><p>This will be enticing backers of Rune, who I think certainly has a chance here. However, we've already discussed him being a fair bit bigger-priced in their last meeting, so the market correction looks warranted in my view.</p><h2>Ruud looking like value to get revenge</h2><p></p><p>The night match features Casper Ruud and Francisco Cerundolo, who caused a shock yesterday with that win over Sinner in three sets.</p><p>Following that, there looks to be a slight market over-reaction, and the consensus is also possibly factoring in Cerundolo's win over Ruud in Barcelona last month.</p><p>However, that day, the Argentine was priced up at around <b class="inline_odds" title="2/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">3.0</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">2/1</span></b>, and is fair bit shorter today, currently trading at <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-rome-2023/ruud-v-cerundolo-betting-32357765"><b class="inline_odds" title="6/4"><span class="inline_odds__main">2.50</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">6/4</span></b></a> on the Exchange.</p><p>A look at the match stats from that match shows that Cerundolo's first serve was firing in that clash, with numbers far in excess of his clay data this season, leading me to believe that it is unlikely that the same will be repeated here in Rome.</p><p>Ruud has far better service numbers on clay this year, and to me, looks to have a fairly significant data edge.</p><p>I'm pretty surprised at this market pricing - particularly as Ruud breezed past Laslo Djere yesterday in an hour and a quarter less time than Cerundolo needed against Sinner - so Ruud is my pick for today.</p><div class="bet_promo_banner"> <p>Back Casper Rudd to beat Francisco Cerundolo</p> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-rome-2023/ruud-v-cerundolo-betting-32357765" class="bet_promo_banner__link" rel="noopener">1.66</a></div></ul> </div> </div> <div class="recommended_bets betslip_goto no_banners" data-banner_cta="Join"> <h3>Recommended bets</h3> <div class="editor editor--reversed"> <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-rome-2023/ruud-v-cerundolo-betting-32357765">Back Casper Ruud at <b class="inline_odds" title="4/6"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.66</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">4/6</span></b></a> </div> </div> <section class="betting_copy"> <div class="editor"> <h2 class="promo-name bf-sportsbook" data-qa="promo-name">New customers can get £20 in free bets!</h2> <p>New customers can earn £20 in free bets when they place a £5 bet on the Sportsbook after signing up. <a href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBHC01B5G20">T&Cs apply.</a></p> <section class="promo__desc"> <div class="description "> <section class="promo__desc"> <div class="description"></div> </section> </div> </section> </div> </section> <div id="betslip" class="entry_body__extras"> <script id="bet_row_tmpl" type="text/x-custom-template"> <tr class="${idx} bet-row"> <td><span class="betting__remove" 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