Djokovic into evens for the title
Clay a potential leveller for Rune
Cerundolo to get Ruud awakening
Coric helps us to another winner
We managed to pick up another winner in what is now becoming a decent couple of Masters tournaments on clay for this column, with Borna Coric ending Fabian Marozsan's dream tournament in a comeback victory.
Exiting the event also were the likes of Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev plus Andrey Rublev, causing some movement in the outright market.
Novak Djokovic is now trading at around even money, with Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev the other leading contenders for the title. Every other player is still in double-digit pricing.
Djokovic far from dominant on clay this season
Djokovic got past Cameron Norrie yesterday, with arguably the biggest drama being when the Brit's smash hit Djokovic on the leg after he had turned his back on the point, and the world number one now faces Holger Rune in today's opener.
Rune's outright price is no doubt being held up by the fact he has to face Djokovic here, with Djokovic being the 1.364/11 favourite to make the semi-finals.
Quite surprisingly, the duo have only met twice with Rune picking up a heavy underdog win at around 4.507/2 in the Paris Masters final at the end of last season.
Djokovic and Rune have never met on clay, which to me looks a surface which is a bit of a leveller between the duo.
On clay this year, Djokovic has the edge (albeit not a huge one) from a data perspective, winning around 4% more return points.
How well the Serb returns today is likely to dictate plenty in terms of the match outcome, and he's hardly dominated opposition so far on the surface this year, hampered by his elbow problem.
In fact, Djokovic has dropped sets in five of the seven matches he's played on clay this year, despite starting at 1.201/5 or below on all occasions - and often considerably shorter than that price too.
In the straight-set wins, he's dropped eight and seven games respectively, which is far from the level of dominance which we are used to seeing from arguably the greatest player of all time.
This will be enticing backers of Rune, who I think certainly has a chance here. However, we've already discussed him being a fair bit bigger-priced in their last meeting, so the market correction looks warranted in my view.
Ruud looking like value to get revenge
The night match features Casper Ruud and Francisco Cerundolo, who caused a shock yesterday with that win over Sinner in three sets.
Following that, there looks to be a slight market over-reaction, and the consensus is also possibly factoring in Cerundolo's win over Ruud in Barcelona last month.
However, that day, the Argentine was priced up at around 3.02/1, and is fair bit shorter today, currently trading at 2.506/4 on the Exchange.
A look at the match stats from that match shows that Cerundolo's first serve was firing in that clash, with numbers far in excess of his clay data this season, leading me to believe that it is unlikely that the same will be repeated here in Rome.
Ruud has far better service numbers on clay this year, and to me, looks to have a fairly significant data edge.
I'm pretty surprised at this market pricing - particularly as Ruud breezed past Laslo Djere yesterday in an hour and a quarter less time than Cerundolo needed against Sinner - so Ruud is my pick for today.