Indian Wells Masters Day 6 Tips: Fucsovics is value but Murray's is match of the day

Dan Weston
13 March 2023
3:00 min read

Hungarian Tennis Player Marton Fucsovics

Marton Fucsovics looks a value favourite tonight

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

The Indian Wells Masters continues tonight with more third round action as the tournament goes into week two. Dan Weston returns with his preview of the Monday schedule...

Medvedev and Zverev struggle into round four
Fucsovics looking best value on Monday
Draper versus Andy Murray the highlight

Market doubts over Medvedev following win

There were a number of close matches last night with four going to deciding sets and two being decided by second-set tiebreaks. One of those who needed three sets to progress was Daniil Medvedev.

The tournament favourite dropped the second set to Ilya Ivashka in a fairly unconvincing display which saw Medvedev manage to save six of the seven break points he faced.

Certainly he will be unable to give higher-level opposition that many chances in later rounds, and the outright market was unimpressed, pushing him out to 3.02/1 despite winning.

Second-favourite Carlos Alcaraz shortened into 4.57/2 despite the Spaniard not even walking onto court yet for his round three match.

Heavy favourites feature tonight

Another unconvincing win from a big name came from Alexander Zverev, who won seven fewer points in his 7-5 1-6 7-5 victory over Emil Ruusuvuori. Zverev faces Medvedev tomorrow in the fourth round.

It's a shame that Zverev isn't facing a lower-ranked opponent than Medvedev, because he looks pretty solid fade material when favourite against competent opposition right now.

Alcaraz leads band of hot favourites on Monday

Moving on to tonight's schedule, we get underway at 18:00 UK time with the aforementioned Alcaraz a hot favourite to progress past Tallon Griekspoor. Felix Auger-Aliassime, Taylor Fritz, Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune are all expected by the market to have a high chance of progressing as well.

With eight matches on the card, this means that five are dominated by heavy favourites, and it's in one of the more evenly matched of those contests that I quite like a slight favourite to progress.

Fucsovics has edge over Molcan

Marton Fucsovics has picked up two underdog wins so far in the event, shocking Alex De Minaur in straight sets on Saturday, and looks to be over the foot problem that caused problems in February.

The Hungarian faces Alex Molcan, who also had injury problems last month in Acapulco but has surprisingly got to this stage with two underdog wins himself.

Molcan has had a woeful year until this event, winning just two matches (and one was as a 1.101/10 favourite over a player ranked outside the top 800), and numbers suggest Fucsovics should have too much for the Slovakian.

Fucsovics looks decent value as the 1.684/6 favourite for this meeting.

Back Marton Fucsovics @

1.68

Draper versus Murray the match of the day

The other match which catches the eye is Jack Draper versus Andy Murray, with the 21-year-old Draper the slight favourite at 1.738/11 to defeat his countryman who is 14 years his senior.

Should Draper win, it will be his second win in a row against British opposition after beating Dan Evans at the weekend.

Murray, of course, has come into the event with a number of wins under his belt but almost all recorded in utterly bizarre, dramatic fashion. I'd love to see that be sustainable but realistically, it's virtually impossible to do so.

In the last six months on hard courts (indoor or outdoor), Draper has a fair edge on data and the main asset Murray has is arguably his incredible will to win.

Throw in some potential nerves for Draper ahead of his first on-court meeting with a British legend and the market price looks about right to me for a match that plenty of people will be looking forward to this evening.

Bet £5 on tennis accas on the French Open, min odds of 1.5. After the qualifying bet(s) have settled, you'll get a £5 free bet. Available on days 1-7 of the French Open. T&Cs apply.