ATP Tour Finals Day Four Tips: Djokovic and Medvedev worthy odds-on favourites

• Rublev and Djokovic meet as round one winners clash

• Tsitsipas and Medvedev in must-win meeting

• Djokovic and Medvedev justified solid favourites

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Market anticipates Djokovic to get past Rublev

With Andrey Rublev and Novak Djokovic picking up wins in the first round of matches in the group, the duo meet in the afternoon match in Turin knowing that victory will give them a great opportunity for qualification - particularly Djokovic who defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets in his opener.

The Serb is currently trading as a strong favourite on the Exchange, at 1.392/5 at the time of writing, around 15 ticks bigger than he started in this event last season against Rublev. That day, Djokovic eased to a 6-3 6-2 win, but Rublev got revenge in the final in Belgrade on clay in April, winning in three.

Big serve advantage for Djokovic in the match-up

Unfortunately for Rublev, there's a rather large chasm between the duo when looking at their indoor data. Djokovic has won around 7% more service points on the surface this year, and also has an advantage on return data too, so there's very little scope to dispute the market line - his serve has just been imperious indoors this year and leaves Rublev with a really tough task to back up his opening day victory over Medvedev.

Medvedev and Tsitsipas continue bad-tempered rivalry

As for Daniil Medvedev, he faces long-time rival Stefanos Tsitsipas and is a similarly priced favourite at 1.4840/85 currently.

The duo have had something of a bad-tempered rivalry throughout their professional careers, with Medvedev initially dominating - he picked up the first five meetings - although Tsitsipas has won three of the last five, including their last clash in Cincinnati in August.

Recent defeats for Medvedev influenced by fine margins

We have to go back to June for Tsitsipas' last tournament victory - a four-round win in Mallorca on grass against fairly limited opponents - while Medvedev won in Vienna at the end of last month indoors.

However, since then, Medvedev has lost back-to-back three setters as a strong match favourite, against Alex De Minaur in Paris and Andrey Rublev (here).

Saying that, Medvedev won 50% and 51% of points, respectively, in those matches, suggesting he was on the end of some pretty fine margins.

Indoors, the big-serving Tsitsipas has won around 2% more service points this year, but it is Medvedev's stellar return game which sees him have a huge 8% edge on return, so there's no debate that Medvedev should be a strong favourite for this match - again, it's tricky to dispute the market line given the data discrepancy between the two players.