ATP Toronto Day One Tips: Millman could struggle to deliver against Berankis

Italian Tennis Player Lorenzo Sonego
Lorenzo Sonego is one of a couple of potential value picks today...

The build-up to the US Open continues with the Toronto Masters taking place over the coming week. Returning to preview the day one action is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...

"In addition, data-wise, Berankis has better hard court numbers in the last 12 months too - he’s our pick for today."

Sinner gives warning to contenders ahead of US Open

Jannik Sinner signalled his intention of being one of the major outsiders at the US Open in a few week's time by lifting the trophy in the Washington 500 event yesterday, with a hard-fought three-set win over Mackenzie McDonald which lasted almost three hours. He faces a potential repeat of his semi-final against Jenson Brooksby in his opener in Toronto this week, before then facing Daniil Medvedev, so a long run in Canada is perhaps going to be a little difficult.

The Italian will be happy with a couple of days off as one of the 16 seeds with first round byes, and today's day one action comes from some lower-profile names as the unseeded players battle to make round two, with matches scheduled to begin at 16:00 UK time.

Expect tiebreaks in clash between Kyrgios and Opelka

I'm expecting conditions to be on the quicker side of medium-paced here, and there is one clash where tiebreaks should be pretty likely - the big-serving match-up between Nick Kyrgios and Reilly Opelka. Kyrgios is the marginal favourite and the first line I checked was the set 1 over 12.5 games line, which unfortunately for us looks reasonably accurately priced at 11/10 with The Sportsbook.

Sonego conservative value to defeat Humbert

The other match which looks quite likely to be dominated by serve, albeit to a lesser extent, is Lorenzo Sonego versus Ugo Humbert, with the Frenchman, Humbert, a 1.584/7 favourite to get the win.

Sonego had a decent season on grass and there's not a huge amount between them on hard court data, so I can't help thinking he is a little undervalued at 2.6813/8 for this match. Both players played in Tokyo in the Olympics so have had some tough travel of late, but Humbert played more and played a number of three-setters in Japan.

Fatigue could be an issue and Humbert at 2.6813/8 looks like some conservative round one value.

Millman overvalued by the market

I'm also thinking that John Millman looks slightly overvalued by the market at 1.875/6 for his match against qualifier Ricardas Berankis, and he's had a fairly arduous schedule playing the Olympics and then three matches in Washington last week as well. In addition, data-wise, Berankis has better hard court numbers in the last 12 months too - he's our pick for today at 2.1211/10.

Wild card Pospisil capable of a round one win in home country

The other spot which looks a bit out is Vasek Pospisil against Tommy Paul, with the Canadian wild card having struggled for form this year but often losing to decent opposition. The market has the duo as virtually even money apiece - Pospisil is 1.9420/21 - and I'd be keener on Pospisil for this.

In other matches, Marin Cilic is among the shorter-priced favourites today but still hasn't done a great deal on hard court over the last couple of years, while the match of the day probably looks like Dan Evans versus Alexander Bublik. Again the market is finding it difficult to split the two players and this should be a competitive clash between two players who have played well this year.

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Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

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