ATP Tokyo & Nur Sultan Tips: Medvedev the pick in Kazakhstan

Kyrgios favourite to triumph in Tokyo

At times which are rather unsociable for European viewers this week, action got underway at 3am Monday on hard court in Tokyo with wins for Pedro Martinez, Brandon Nakashima, Bernabe Zapata Miralles and Frances Tiafoe.

It's the first time the ATP Tour has gone to Tokyo since 2019, when Novak Djokovic lifted the trophy, although the Serb has moved across to compete in Kazakhstan this week after winning the title in Tel Aviv on Sunday.

Casper Ruud takes the honours as top seed, but there's no first-round byes in either tournament this week so the winner will need to be victorious in five rounds in order to win the title.

The Norwegian is among the tournament favourites, with Nick Kyrgios, Denis Shapovalov, Taylor Fritz and round one winner Tiafoe leading the outright market at the time of writing.

There's still not a lot of liquidity at this stage of the tournament, but Kyrgios is the general market favourite and is 4.3100/30 on the Exchange.

Market favourite with kind early draw

Looking at the draw, Ruud's main challenge in Q1 will come from sixth seed Alex De Minaur, and it would be a surprise if one of those two didn't emerge victorious from the quarter, while Tiafoe's Q2 is competitive, with the likes of Dan Evans, Miomir Kecmanović and last week's Seoul winner Yoshihito Nishioka all capable.

Nishioka beat Ruud last week in that event, and they could well clash again in the semi-finals this week if they both make it that far.

Kyrgios is a strong favourite in Q3 with two qualifiers, a lucky loser and several primarily Challenger players in the bracket - Taylor Fritz is the only player who should give him a decent match - and that's a big part of the reason why the Australian is favourite for the title, given his gift early rounds.

The talented American, Nakashima, is among those who could come through Q4, with Denis Shapovalov and Borna Coric also capable of a strong showing - there's a huge ability differential between the main contenders and the also-rans in this event.

Plenty of top ten interest in Nur Sultan

In Nur-Sultan, Soon-woo Kwon is the defending champion, but has travelled instead to Tokyo to compete there instead.

Carlos Alcaraz is top seed in what looks to be a fantastic field (at least from a top 10 perspective) with Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic all competing as well. Djokovic is favourite, at 2.68/5, with Alcaraz next in the market at 4.57/2.

Medvedev is priced at 6.25/1, as third favourite after a very disappointing defeat indoors to Stan Wawrinka in Metz several weeks ago.

Medvedev looking like the value pick

Looking at the recent levels of the market-leading trio, you might be surprised to learn that Medvedev actually has a marginally better combined service/return points won percentage in the last three months than Alcaraz (just over the 108% mark), while Djokovic's win in Tel Aviv was his first activity in that time period.

This year, the Serb is around the 110% figure across all surfaces.

After an arduous couple of weeks and a slight wrist injury concern, I'm not too taken with Djokovic at market prices, and Medvedev looks better value than Alcaraz, so looks the pick of the market leading trio at current prices.

This could be just the event for Medvedev to get back to winning ways, and he's my pick for the week ahead.