ATP Paris Masters Day One Tips: Cilic to have too much for Musetti

• Norrie losing form at the wrong time
• Cilic the best bet of the day
• Clash of styles in Schwartzman v Cressy

Berrettini among those with an early start

With the clocks changing in the UK over the weekend, it's an early start for UK viewers in Paris over the coming week, with matches scheduled for 9am from tomorrow.

One of the two matches at that hour isn't expected to be hugely competitive, with Matteo Berrettini an overwhelming favourite over home player Arthur Fils, who is still yet to break into the top 300 after reaching the boy's singles final at Roland Garros in 2021, but did pick up a shock win over Fabio Fognini in qualifying.

Norrie struggling over recent months

Focus for Monday will be some of the matches which the market anticipates will be more competitive, and one is Miomir Kecmanovic versus Cameron Norrie, for which the Brit, Norrie, is the slight favourite priced up at 1.715/7 at the time of writing.

A poor run of results and withdrawals from tournaments have rather derailed Norrie's progress towards the ATP Finals, which looked well in his reach at the end of August - just three wins since have pushed him back in the race. This week in Vienna, Norrie was beaten by Marcos Giron after struggling past the Argentine clay-courter, Pedro Cachin in round one, so we are unlikely to see him at his best over the coming week.

The dynamics of the clash are those issues for Norrie, versus Kecmanovic's mediocre record indoors in his career so far, on a surface where the Serb is running at well below 100% combined service/return points won percentage in the last three years.

Cilic capable of a higher level indoors

Another player who is a favourite after being backed in is Marin Cilic at 1.574/7 for his meeting with Lorenzo Musetti, and Cilic will be looking to get back to winning ways after surprisingly losing to Arthur Rinderknech in Basel this week in a final set tiebreak.

Prior to that, Cilic's recent losses came against very high quality opposition, with Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic contributing three of his previous four losses, so the veteran Croat has been playing at a solid enough level, and a level which should be too much for Musetti.

The Italian has unremarkable indoors data over the last year with Cilic capable of winning a higher percentage of service and return points during that time period on the surface. I also do have reservations about Musetti in quicker conditions so for me, it's Cilic to take this.

Schwartzman v Cressy a clash of opposing styles

These quicker conditions should also provide little in the way of assistance for Diego Schwartzman, who has lost his last five matches, four of which were indoors. We have to go back to his first-round win over John Millman at this venue here last year for Schwartzman's last win indoors.

The Argentine faces Maxime Cressy, who possesses a big serve which should work well indoors, but who hasn't inspired on the surface himself - losing to wild card Dominic Stricker in Basel last week. An inability to win return points, leading to breaking just below 6% indoors in the last 12 months, is Cressy's issue, and this is the classic match between a strong returner and a strong server.

Finally, of the players likely fighting it out for ATP Finals qualification, only Taylor Fritz is in action with the American facing the enigmatic Spaniard, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. The market expects Fritz to get the job done and to continue fighting for a spot, being one of the shortest-priced favourites of the opening day.