ATP Paris Day 2 Tips: Sonego can take advantage of fatigued Fritz

Italian Tennis Player Lorenzo Sonego
Lorenzo Sonego looks like some underdog value today...

Action at the Paris Masters continues today with the first round concluding, and there's plenty to discuss as the tournament continues. Dan Weston returns to give his thoughts on day two...

"On Sunday, Fritz lost a close three-setter to Marin Cilic in Russia and it's going to be tough to go from that on Sunday evening to this match in the early afternoon on Tuesday in France."

Murray out as Norrie's dream continues

One of the big talking points on the opening day in the French capital was the easy win for Cameron Norrie over Federico Delbonis which keeps the Race to Turin dream alive for the Brit, who needs to outperform the likes of Jannik Sinner and Casper Ruud this week in order to make the final eight. However, Norrie's British compatriot Andy Murray was ousted by lucky loser Dominik Koepfer, who replaced Jenson Brooksby at short notice.

Both of Sinner and Ruud picked up a first-round bye and start in round two, probably tomorrow, but before then there's more opening round action in Paris as the tournament continues. On a day where pre-match value looks thin on the ground, here's some thoughts on a few of the clashes.

Opelka should enjoy conditions in Paris

Filip Krajinovic 2.0811/10 vs Reilly Opelka 1.9110/11: I included this match for discussion because I think it's one of those rare matches where I'm pretty unwilling to listen to basic model pricing. This has the prices pretty much reversed from the current market lines but there are two reasons why I think the market probably has it about right.

First, Krajinovic has had to endure a miserable run of form, winning back to back matches in only one event in his last seven competed, and that was in Sofia where he was a comfortable pre-match favourite in all his wins before losing in the semi-final.

Furthermore, the quick conditions likely to be on display in Paris should suit the big-serving Opelka a lot more. He already holds serve almost 90% of the time outdoors on hard court this year and on a quick indoor court, he should be able to do so even more regularly. Breaking the American will be very tough indeed and the most likely potential route to a Krajinovic victory probably will be tiebreaks.

Alcaraz Garfia could be tested by wild card Herbert

Pierre-Hugues Herbert 4.10 vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1.3130/100: This is a fascinating clash between a home wild card and a young player with absurdly high potential. Alcaraz Garfia isn't far from getting inside the top 40 and a small rise in the rankings will ensure Australian Open seeding in January, while the Frenchman, Herbert, now finds himself outside the top 100.

Herbert has had some back problems of late and some uninspiring results in Challengers, which doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in him, but he has shown a reasonable level indoors in the last couple of years in general and shouldn't be a pushover for Alcaraz Garfia.

The 18-year-old has performed superbly of late, making the semi-finals in Vienna, quarter-finals of the US Open and the semi-final in Winston Salem in his last four tournaments and has also picked up several top-ten scalps in those events. He starts as favourite but I think Herbert has the ability to keep it pretty interesting, at least.

Fritz may find it tough to back up Sunday's final

Lorenzo Sonego 2.3611/8 vs Taylor Fritz 1.728/11: This, in my view, is probably the best spot on a tricky opening day. I like the underdog, Sonego, considering my model doesn't find anything to split the duo. The Italian hasn't been in great form but has lost to competent opposition of late and has done well indoors over the last couple of years, with an impressive combined service/return points won percentage of over 103% during this time period.

Furthermore, Fritz is likely to be fatigued following his run to the final of St. Petersburg last week.

On Sunday, Fritz lost a close three-setter to Marin Cilic in Russia and it's going to be tough to go from that on Sunday evening to this match in the early afternoon on Tuesday in France, with potential fatigue a major concern. Sonego should be much fresher and he's my recommendation for today.

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