Dimitrov and Norrie triumph to set up semi-final
Yesterday's two slight underdogs, Grigor Dimitrov and Cameron Norrie, progressed yesterday in the quarter finals to set up a semi-final clash against each other. This leaves four other players in the tournament, with this quartet competing today and the two winners facing each other in the other semi-final.
This has made the outright market fascinating, with Zverev shortening to 2.186/5 without having stepped on court since the last round, and Tsitsipas behind him at 4.003/1. Both of yesterday's winners, Dimitrov and Norrie, are priced around the 7.006/1 mark while today's two heavy underdogs, Taylor Fritz and Nikoloz Basilashvili are the rank outsiders at the time of writing.
Action gets underway at 1900 UK time, so let's discuss the two matches on today's card...
Tsitsipas with big serve edge over Basilashvili
Nikoloz Basilashvili 4.10 vs Stefanos Tsitsipas 1.3130/100: Second seed Tsitsipas is a solid favourite to take this but has drifted a few ticks from the early lines, making him an identical price to my model now. Given this, its obvious that I'm in complete agreement with the market line, and there's clearly no pre-match value here, in my view.
Basilashvili has done well to get to this stage, getting past Karen Khachanov in the last 16 when not anticipated to do so, but this should be the end of his journey. Tsitsipas, who got past Alex De Minaur in tricky circumstances on Wednesday, has won 8% more service points than the Georgian, and this is ultimately likely to be the main difference between the duo.
Zverev likely to be too good for Fritz
Taylor Fritz 5.309/2 vs Alexander Zverev 1.222/9: Tournament favourite Zverev is an even shorter favourite than his outright market rival, Tsitsipas, tonight. Again, this price looks about right - my model went 1.241/4 on the German - and the market being broadly correct is a pretty common scenario for these latter stage matches in big tournaments, where player level is usually well exposed.
Earlier this summer, Zverev got the better of Fritz in four sets at Wimbledon, priced at 1.121/8, but in a best of three-set match it's natural that there's a slight increase in the market price.
On hard court this year, Zverev has won 4% more service points and around 6% more return points, so there's a clear ability differential between the two players, and given this, it would be a shock if the tournament favourite was elimiated tonight.
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