Norrie needing to improve on serve to test Alcaraz
Market favourites Daniil Medvedev, Carlos Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas progressed in straight sets to continue their runs in Cincinnati, while the surprise package of the tournament Ben Shelton found Cameron Norrie far too good as he succumbed to a heavy defeat at the hands of the Brit.
Norrie's reward is a quarter-final against Carlos Alcaraz in the night match, but is a heavy underdog versus the Spanish teenager, who is priced at 1.384/11 to end Norrie's tournament - a pretty similar price to their previous hard court meeting at Indian Wells in March, which Alcaraz won in straight sets.
In fact, the duo have met three times in the last year, with Alcaraz triumphing in all of them. The insight from those is very useful - Norrie has really struggled on serve in these three clashes, holding serve less than 60% of the time. He will really need to improve on serve tonight if he is going to test Alcaraz here.
Isner again likely to look for tiebreaks
The shortest-priced favourite on the day's schedule is Stefanos Tsitsipas against John Isner, which is an interesting debate in expected quick conditions. Isner did what he does well last night against Sebastian Korda, winning two tiebreaks to progress - he's 5-1 in tiebreaks so far in this event across nine sets competed.
Tsitsipas has breezed into the last 16 but his serve-oriented nature combined with the big-serving Isner should ensure that the match is dominated by serve. I'm anticipating a tight match with few break point chances and tiebreaks, dictated by fine margins. Tsitsipas should be favourite but I think the market line of 1.384/11 is a little on the short side.
Medvedev facing a tough test from Fritz
In other matches, Felix Auger-Aliassime should have too much for Borna Coric, although the Croat has done well this week as he continues his long-term recovery from injury, and Daniil Medvedev is similarly priced up at 1.538/15 for his clash with Taylor Fritz.
When I first saw the market line, I thought it looked big on Medvedev but looking at the season-long hard court data on the duo, I can understand it a lot more. In fact, the duo aren't far off each other's level (statistically) on the surface this year. This should be a really decent test for the top seed Medvedev, who has won both matches so far in straight sets but has hardly dominated his opponents so far.
It will be fascinating to see how Fritz goes here, given that he really looks like he's improved in recent months.