US Election Swing States: Michigan is close but Democrats ahead at 10/11

• The Great Lakes State has been keen on Democrats for decades

• Democrats 10/111.91 to win the Northern state

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Swing States key to outcome of US Election

Every state will count in this incredibly tight election, which has already seen over £84 million wagered on the Presidential election winner market. Donald Trump is leading the way at 4/51.80 to win the election. Harris trails behind at 5/42.25.

Swing states are battleground states that could vote either Democrat or Republican on election day. Because of the electoral college system, winning a state that was previously a toss-up is a huge win for either candidate on election night. These states have small vote margins and a history of voting for presidents from both parties.

States that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, but had previously voted Trump, are key swing states in this election - as are states that were won by less than 3%. For this election, most pollsters and political analysts judge the following seven states to be critical: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

So to kick off the final sprint to election day, here's our spotlight on another one of these states - Michigan.

Democratic support in question?

The Republican Party had been in the ascendancy since Richard Nixon carried the state for the Republicans in his second Presidential election by a huge 15% margin in 1972.

Prior to this, the state had flipped between the Democrats and Republicans.

Yet in the following five elections, Republicans Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and George Bush Sr all carried the state.

As we noted before, Bill Clinton's election in 1992 was a landmark election in key states. It was the last time to date that the state of Montana voted Democratic in a Presidential, and the last time until 2020 that Georgia did so.

Since then, there was a run of Democratic wins including significant margins such as Obama's 2008 16% margin over John McCain.

Yet Donald Trump, predictably, shook up the races since with his 0.2% margin over Clinton. In 2024, Biden won the state by less than 3%.

How are the campaigns faring so far?

The Democrats hold a lead over the Republicans, but only just according to the market. At 10/111.91, they have a 52% chance of winning the state. Yet at 21/202.05, the Republicans are close behind with a 49% chance.

That could mean this election comes down to Election Night.

Michigan and the Blue Wall

Political pundits coined the phrase "Blue Wall" in response to the Democrats' domination across 18 US states that they won in every Presidential Election from 1992-2012.

These include a string of states in New England, the Great Lakes regions, and the North-Western seaboard of the country. Michigan is the most prominent of the Great Lakes states.

In 2016, Clinton was considered to be the heavy favourite in the betting odds partly due to her success in this group of states.

Yet as history rejected convention on that historic night - with Betfair odds switching dramatically during the night of the election - the Blue Wall bucked its modern historical trend.

Donald Trump won narrow victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This makes them all key swing states this year.

Michigan is home to some key voter demographic under the spotlight this year. The United States largest Black-majority city, Detroit, is in Michigan. Yet Detroit is perhaps best known for being the home of the US Automotive sector.

The "Big Three" auto manufacturers - General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis (formerly Chrysler) are all headquartered in the city, making it a critical state for US manufacturing.

Polling vs odds

The highly-regarded Emerson College poll has shown the expected Presidential victor in Michigan swapping multiple times in recent weeks.

In July, Trump held the advantage at 49% to 46% in the state. Yet over August and September, it was Harris who translated her momentum into polling success, holding a minimum 2-point lead over Trump.

Yet as of October 10th, Michigan is showing a dead-heat between the two candidates, at 49% apiece.

The betting markets are suggesting that 2016 for Clinton was the blip, and that Michigan will eventually pull through for the Democrats.

The Democratic Party is currently favourite at 10/111.91 to win this key swing state. Yet the Republicans are not far behind, at 21/202.05.

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