Sam Rosbottom: It's Trump's to lose

• Betfair's Sam Rosbottom reports from the US

• Our man says the Betfair odds are rarely wrong

• So a Trump win looks likely when America goes to the polls on Tuesday

• Get the latest data including current prices and volume of bets in our daily update

• View Betfair Exchange politics markets as you have never seen them before

• Place £5 on a US Election market and receive a £5 free bet

It's Trump's to lose

Months of campaigning, endless trips across the country for rallies, endorsements, and gaffe after gaffe... it all boils down to Tuesday, when America goes to the polls.

Draining campaign draws to a close

Whatever happens, I'm sure the candidates will feel slightly relieved once this is all over.

I know that's how a lot of voters in the US will be feeling after speaking to so many of them in the last two weeks on my swing state tour. One guy in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania said to me: "I can't wait for the TV ads to stop, they are on constantly, one after the other."

After spending two days there, the key swing state where the Harris and Trump teams have spent more than half a billion dollars on TV ads, I completely sympathised with him. It's a choice that is splitting friendships and dividing households; everyone has an opinion on it. Even if some people I've spoken to don't plan to vote, it's a divisive question and everyone has an opinion.

Listen to Betfair's final politics podcast of the 2024 US Election

Betting points to a second Trump presidency

The polls are incredibly tight, but the betting is clearly pointing to one outcome and it's Donald Trump's to lose.

He's the favourite in five of the seven swing states, and is neck and neck in the betting in one, Wisconsin. While the betting in Michigan has swung back in favour of Harris.

Even events last week didn't sway punters' support for him. Last weekend's controversy at his Madison Square Garden rally has thrown up some serious questions about the Puerto Rican vote in Pennsylvania.

The Keystone State that is absolutely critical to both candidates and I don't see an outcome where someone wins the election if they don't win there.

'Garbage' gaffe this election's 'deplorables'?

It wasn't just a rough week for the Republicans though, Joe Biden's gaffe, where he apparently called Trump supporter's garbage has had an equally detrimental effect on the Harris campaign's momentum, and has echos of Hillary Clinton's "basket of deplorables" comment about Trump supporters late in the 2016 campaign. And that didn't work out well.

While it's been an unprecedented election so far, punters have settled on who they think will win and the Betfair Exchange has correctly predicted 22 of the last 24 major elections. The market is red hot on Trump. Nine of the top ten biggest bets we have taken are on the former President. While the stakes may be high in this election, the odds are clear, Donald Trump looks set to win the race to the White House.

Now see the latest US election predictions from Betfair predicts