US Election Latest: Odds tighten as poll shows Harris ahead in Republican stronghold

• Trump remains favourite but odds slide dramatically in recent days

• Harris was nearly 2/13.00 early in the week, but is now 6/52.20

• Big market move comes as poll shows Democrats ahead in Iowa, a state where Republicans have been as short as 1/331.03 to win

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With less than 48 hours until polling day the odds in the Betfair Exchange US Election Winner market have tightened significantly.

While Donald Trump remains the favourite to win, his odds have shifted from a midweek low of nearly 1/21.50 to 4/51.80. Kamala Harris, who nearly touched 2/13.00 early in the week, is currently rated a 6/52.20 shot by Exchange punters.

Iowa poll casts doubt on Trump's position as favourite

The dramatic betting moves come after a huge day of trading that saw more than £10m bet into the Election Winner market alone and was powered in part by a shock poll that puts the Democrats ahead in Iowa.

Not considered one of the swing states, Iowa was nevertheless hugely unlikely to go to the Democrats according to Exchange customers. Republicans had been backed at odds as short as 1/331.03 to take the Hawkeye State which has voted Trump's way in the last two elections.

But while the GOP remain favourites to win the state again at 3/101.30 the fact that the Democrats are competitive could be read as a positive sign for their chances.

Election day nears and all eyes on Pennsylvania

It is just the latest move of what has been a tumultuous campaign with both candidates holding the lead several times.

As it stands the betting points to a very close race and it seems likely that Pennsylvania will play the key role. The Republicans are ahead by the thinnest of margins in the key swing state which will deliver the winning party 19 electoral college votes. If the odds prove correct when the votes are counted, the Republicans would win the electoral college, as you can see in the below Betfair Predicts projection.

You can read the latest analysis on this key swing state from Betfair's Sam Rosbottom who is on the ground in the US and visited Pennsylvania this week.

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