US Election Bet of the Day: The best way to back a Republican meltdown

US President Donald Trump
Trump's party look set for a nightmare result

'Blue Wave' backers are eyeing some monumental upsets but for today's bet, Paul Krishnamurty has a much less ambitious way of backing that outcome...

"This bet will win if Biden wins the states rated blue, three toss-ups - all clearly projected by polls - plus Ohio, Georgia and Iowa. It doesn't even involve Texas."

Back Republicans to win 21 states or less @ 7/24.7

With the polls moving even further in Joe Biden's favour, there is plenty of betting talk doing the rounds about him winning some real outlier targets. Alaska. South Carolina. Kansas. Missouri. Any of which would represent an earth-shattering upset.

Forget that and focus instead on the Republican States Won market. The lowest option is 21 or less at 7/24.7 and that need not involve any such extreme targets.

Check out the current map at 270towin.com. They have 24 states either in the red column - either strong, likely or lean - compared to 23 for the Democrats, with three toss-ups.

Their current ratings are more pro-Republican than the consensus. Pennsylvania is rated toss-up despite big, consistent Biden leads, but Ohio and Georgia are rated lean-Republican despite Trump barely leading at all or even trailing.

This bet will win if Biden wins the blue states and three toss-ups - all clearly projected by polls - plus Ohio, Georgia and Iowa. It doesn't even involve Texas.

This makes better sense than backing the extreme bands on Biden Electoral College Votes - 390 plus has been paying around the same but this bet would win with merely 375.

Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.

2020 US Presidential Election: USA - Presidential Election 2020 (Republicans States Won)

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Tuesday 3 November, 11.04am

Market rules

Back Lay
21 States or less
22-23 States
24-25 States
26-27 States
28-29 States
30 States or more
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