Sam Rosbottom: US Election market on course to be tightest political race we've seen on the Betfair Exchange

• Will the 2024 Election Winner odds flip again?

• Which of the swing states are in target for Dems and Reps?

• Check out our 2024 US Presidential Election Live Blog here

• View Betfair Exchange politics markets as you have never seen before at Betfair Predicts

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Once again, we've seen the Betfair Exchange 2024 Election Winner market flip-flop this week, with Donald Trump briefly hitting odds-on before settling around even money.

This market move came following this week's Vice-Presidential debate, which saw Democrat Governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz take on Republican Senator from Ohio, JD Vance.

Usually, these VP debates do little to move the dial, but that can't be said for this one.

While this wasn't anything like the explosive face-off between Trump and Harris that we saw a few weeks ago, there was a move.

Kamala Harris had been the 1.9520/21 favourite going into the VP debate, but 15 minutes in her odds drifted to 2.01/1, before they further drifted with Trump overtaking her early on Wednesday morning.

Was this just another market flip or something bigger than that?

Ok, so the market moved, but what can we read into that? To be honest, the market is flip-flopping so much at the moment it's difficult to say anything other than this is still too tight to call.

In fact, the lead on the Betfair Exchange US Election winner market has changed seven times in the last three months.

Compare that to four years ago, when Joe Biden was the favourite from six months out right up to when the votes came in.

It was only when Trump won in Florida overnight when the market flipped again, which lasted for a few hours up to Biden winning Georgia, which paved the way to victory.

A month out from that 2020 election, Joe Biden was as short as 1.574/7, with Trump trailing at 2.8615/8.

You'd expect things to be pretty tight going into election day in these big races, but it's never really been the case.

Average odds from the Betfair Exchange going into election day

2020 Election

Joe Biden 1.51/2

Donald Trump 2.9539/20

2016 Election

Hillary Clinton 1.51/2*

Donald Trump 5.62231/50

*The one time in Betfair Exchange history that punters got it wrong on the US election, but so did everybody else, right?

2012 Election

Barack Obama 1.282/7

Mitt Romney 4.5288/25

2008 Election

Barack Obama 1.081/12

John McCain 12.35227/20

2004 Election

**

Democrats (John Kerry) 2.31131/100

Republicans (George W.Bush) 1.758/11

**The 2004 election was the very first US Presidential election that was offered on the Betfair Exchange, and there were only two selections: Democrats or Republicans

Election debate and insight on Politics...Only Bettor

The state of play has been a hot topic this week on the first of three very special episodes of our Betfair politics podcast. I'm pleased to say we're back talking our political markets on the fantastic Betfair podcast network.

Joining me on the panel was the excellent Harry Cole and Susie Boniface, while keeping us all in check was the omniscient Adam Boulton, who's been round the block when it comes to US elections first reporting from the US in 1988.

Don't miss Politics... Only Bettor: US Election special, which will be live first thing tomorrow.

Swing States so important...

As to be expected, we dived into how things have been going and where this election will be won and lost... the swing states.

As things stand, it's looking like Pennsylvania will live up to it's nickname as the keystone state, with 19 electoral college votes up for grabs, it's going to be critical for both candidates.

Here's a look at how the market sees the pivotal swing states:

It's also worth a reminder at just how tight things were in these seven states four years ago:

Wisconsin

Joe Biden won by 0.63%

Michigan

Joe Biden won by 2.78%

Pennsylvania

Joe Biden won by 1.17%

North Carolina

Donald Trump won by 1.35%

Georgia

Joe Biden won by 0.24%

Nevada

Joe Biden won by 2.39%

Arizona

Joe Biden won by 0.31%

Plenty of razor thin margins for Biden in 2020 that are up for grabs for Trump and are there to build on for Kamala Harris. It wouldn't be a surprise to see quite a few flip, after all they are swing states, right?

North Carolina could seriously be on the table here for Kamala Harris, the Republicans have more or less been able to rely on the Tarheel state for the last 50 years, with the Democrats only winning twice in that period, but when we look at Trump's margin of victory, that significantly decreased in 2020 to just 1.35% compared to 2016 when he won by 3.66% of the vote.

Winning margin in North Carolina in the last seven US Elections:

2020: Donald Trump (Rep) won by a margin of 1.35%
2016: Donald Trump (Rep) won by a margin of 3.66%
2012: Mitt Romney (Rep) won by a margin of 2.04%
2008: Barack Obama (Dem) won by a margin of 0.32%
2004: George W. Bush (Rep) won by a margin of 12.44%
2000: George W. Bush (Rep) won by a margin of 12.83%
1996: Bob Dole (Rep) won by a margin of 4.69%

Currently, Trump is the favourite to hold onto North Carolina at 1.664/6, while Harris is 2.466/4.

Harris must make the most of media opportunities

On Monday, Kamala Harris' '60 Minutes' interview airs on CBS, with Donald Trump declining to take part in his own version, and this is a big opportunity for the Vice President.

With no sign of another Presidential debate any time soon, and a month of headlines from Trump's campaign trail and legal battles to come, the American public and Betfair Exchange punters alike will be tuned in to see if she can move the dial again in her favour.

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