US Election: Harris in Michigan driving seat but can Trump shift gears in swing state?

• Betfair Sam reports on the battle to win Michigan

• Harris favourite but can Trump pull off Great Lakes upset?

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Watch Politics...Only Bettor US election episode three

The US Presidential Election is just four days away, and the spotlight is firmly on the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. These crucial battlegrounds, often referred to as the 'blue wall,' have dominated news headlines across American networks.

It's been an exciting time to visit these pivotal states and engage with voters who will play a decisive role in determining the outcome of this critical election.

After spending two great days in Milwaukee, it was time for me to move on from Wisconsin and my next stop was Motor City.

Detroit is the largest city in Michigan, home of Motown records and a metropolis that has undergone an incredible transformation in the last decade or two.

While there is still a large automotive industry in the state, the area has suffered from industrial decline and urban decay, but when I arrived in Detroit I saw proud motifs of its industrial past, the city was buzzing with energy, and as one local put it: "The place is completely different to what it used to be".

Their football (NFL) team are absolutely flying at the moment too, and with a record of 6-1, they could go all the way to the Super Bowl.

Speaking to people in Detroit, it was clear that the economy was the deal breaker for them in this election. There was frustration with the Biden administration and how inflation had affected everyday life.

🇺🇸 Trump or Harris?

The swing state of Michigan is certain to play a key role 🗳️@BetfairSam is in Detroit to find out who'll they'll vote for & why...

-- Betfair Exchange (@BetfairExchange) October 31, 2024

We spoke to lots of people, some were pro-Harris and others who were pro-Trump, but we also spoke to people who didn't have a preference and weren't going to bother voting because neither candidate appealed to them. That surprised me, but it got me thinking about the third-party vote, and how significant that could be again.

The third party factor in Michigan

A recent CNN report found a GOP-linked super PAC (funding group) had spent almost $400k on supporting third party candidate Jill Stein in Michigan and Wisconsin. Now why would they spend money on supporting someone other than the candidate they are backing? Because they know that if they can take votes off Harris, and if there's a strong third-party vote, it's likely to be advantage Trump.

In 2016, Donald Trump won Michigan by less than 1%. It was the first time a Republican had won there since 1988. The vote share for third parties in 2016 was 5.23%. Stein is polling around 1-2%, and for the GOP it is a case of the more the merrier.

Joe Biden flipped Michigan back to the Democrats in 2020, winning by 2.8%, while the third-party vote four years ago was just 1.54%. It's clear to see why the GOP-linked super PACs have dusted off the 2016 playbook.

Recent polling has been positive for Harris, and she has a marginal lead in the Great Leaks State. Unlike other swing states, the betting market also reflects this, making Harris 8/111.73 (58%) to win.

The vice president wasn't fancied here. Trump 11/82.38 briefly went favourite last week before the state market flipped back in favour of the Democrats.

If Trump splits, or even breaks through the blue wall states entirely, like he did in 2016, then he will be well on his way to a second term in the White House. He's still polling ahead of Harris on the economy, and for the people of Detroit and Michigan, that's a pretty big deal right now.

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