US Election Explainer: The growing gulf between urban and rural America

• The United States is a prominent example of the divide between urban and rural voters

• The reality of rural voters is not being addressed

• JD Vance, Trump's VP pick, has made a point of emphasising his rural roots

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Huge divide between urban and rural populations in the US

Voting patterns of urban and rural voters have increasingly diverged in recent elections, with urban dwellers more likely to support Democratic candidates, and rural voters more likely to vote Republican.

In the early 1990s, voters in rural and urban counties voted in a similar way to each other in Presidential elections.

Yet since 2000, rural voters have increasingly opted for Republican candidates, while support for Democrats has boomed in urban areas.

Since 2008, the Republican advantage in rural counties has grown, no matter which party won the Presidential election. In 2008, around 56% of the votes in rural counties went to the Republicans. But by 2020, that had grown to 65%.

Earlier this year, the book 'White Rural Rage: The Threat to American Democracy' caught the interest of the United States' political establishment. It argued that rural white voters feel betrayed by the political system, which has led to insufficient healthcare and infrastructure.

It also argues that the right-wing media have capitalised on this grievance, leading to a resurgence of extreme ideologies.

The reality of rural voters

As Eric Levitz of Vox elaborates, rural white voters are more supportive of Trump than those in urban areas. In 2020, rural white voters backed Trump over Biden by 42 points, whereas suburban white voters chose Trump by just 7 points over Biden,

Urban white voters supported Biden over Trump by a 32 point margin.

In Pennsylvania, a critical swing state in the upcoming election, rural counties are seeing a renaissance as voters from Philadelphia and Harrisburg move out of urban centers and to more rural areas.

As the New York Times states: "Rural counties across western and northern Pennsylvania have lost population and are expected to shrink further in the coming years. But the state's southeast has flourished, with population growing and pushing out from the suburbs of Philadelphia and Harrisburg into counties that were once mostly rural and conservative. Many of the jobs drawing newcomers are not in factories but in hospitals and universities."

This may well have an impact on the election calculus in Pennsylvania and other key swing states in coming elections.

Because of the Electoral College, which we covered in our earlier explainer, rural voters have a disproportionate impact on the result of the election.

Yet attempts to counter this might be short-sighted - rural voters have been overlooked and ignored in recent election cycles.

They often suffer from a draining of resources from rural areas towards urban areas, as well as a concentration of right-wing media in those areas that perpetuates an electoral trend that sees rural voters increasingly opting for Republican politicians as their representatives.

Hillbilly Elegy

Donald Trump's chosen candidate for Vice-President, JD Vance, is well-acquainted with the difficulties faced by the American working class.

His 2016 memoir, "Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis", is a poignant portrayal of the working class in Appalachia - a region of the United States stretching from New York state to Georgia and Alabama.

Vance writes about the difficulties he faced growing up in Ohio with a drug addict mother, but also about the unique culture of America's rural counties.

During this election cycle, many Democratic politicians have sought to distance JD Vance from the region's working class. Andy Beshear, for example, who was shortlisted to become Kamala Harris' running mate, delivered a scorching rebuke to JD Vance's ties to Kentucky, saying "JD Vance is a phony, he's fake [...] he ain't from here".

Yet with the rural working class feeling so disaffected - and not seeing the Democratic Party as truly representing their difficulties - JD Vance's story will chime with many and may be a real asset for Trump's campaign going into this election.

What next?

Kamala Harris may have hoped that her folksy VP choice, Tim Walz, will boost her chances with rural America - and indeed, Harris held a lead in the betting markets for 12 days following her announcement of Walz as her running mate.

Yet JD Vance's credentials continue to win out - Trump has been dominating the betting markets in recent days.

He is riding high on the Betfair Exchange at odds of 5/71.71 to return to the Oval Office, giving him a 58% chance of winning.

Harris is at a distant 6/42.50, giving her only a 40% chance of winning, as a flurry of bets have boosted Trump to some of his best chances yet in this election.

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