US Election: Betfair market settlement latest

Dec 15, Update

The Electoral College formally cast its votes on December 14 and this enabled us to settle the remaining Betfair Exchange markets on the US election.

The Next President market rules stipulated that we would settle the market on the candidate that had the most projected Electoral College votes.

Following the Electoral College votes being cast, that candidate is clearly Joe Biden.

Thanks for your patience.

Nov 27, Update

An update on settlement of the US election markets on the Betfair Exchange (Friday, 5pm).

We have not settled certain markets on the Betfair Exchange relating to the U.S. election because of the uncertainty about the outcome of the results caused by ongoing recounts and potential legal challenges.

Given our responsibility to both backers and layers to ensure that the markets are settled correctly and given the unprecedented amount of money that has been traded on these markets, we have sought advice from leading U.S. lawyers to determine the appropriate time to settle the markets.

We currently anticipate that we will wait until the outcome of the Electoral College votes on 14 December 2020 is known before we settle the markets. This, of course, assumes that there is no conclusive outcome before this date.

The Exchange was briefly suspended at [17:00] this afternoon (Nov 27) to clear unmatched bets. It has now reopened for customers to trade their positions.

The below was posted Nov 5

Ordinarily in a US election, a result declaration from various news networks would be followed by a concession speech by the losing candidate.

This would trigger the settlement of the remaining Betfair markets. It's what happened in 2008, 2012 and 2016.

As you know - and as was widely predicted - 2020 is no ordinary election! One reason for this is the turnout which looks set to be the highest for over a century. This means it's taking longer to count the votes, especially in swing states.

Another factor is the possibility that the losing candidate may challenge the results in the courts.

We will only settle the markets when there is certainty around which candidate has the most projected Electoral College votes.

Before settling the markets, we must therefore wait for clarity around ongoing vote counts, recounts and any potential legal challenges to the results.

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