US Politics

US Election 2024 Betting: Trump backed after key states poll boost

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
Ex-US president Donald Trump
Trump is the favourite to win the 2024 US Presidential election

With exactly one year to go until US Presidential election day 2024 Donald Trump is the favourite on Betfair while Joe Biden is drifting in both the election winner and Democratic nominee markets...

  • Trump odds-against fav on Betfair

  • Biden drifting as polls show age concern

  • Newsom 11/26.50 to replace Biden as Dem nom


US presidential election 2024 favourite Donald Trump was backed on the Betfair Exchange after polling put him ahead of Joe Biden in five key states.

Trump shortened to [ 2.74] to make an extraordinary return to the White House by winning the election which will take place one year from today on 5 November 2024.

His rival, President Joe Biden, who beat Trump three years ago, drifted to 3.3512/5 on the Exchange.

The polling by the New York Times and Siena College of voters in battleground states was released with 365 days to go until the election. Its findings indicated that the electoral coalition that got Biden to the White House in 2020 was fracturing.

Trump was ahead of Biden when it comes to managing the American economy by 22 points.

Newsom backed as voters say Biden "too old"

Voters expressed concern about 80-year-old Biden's age, with 71% across the six key states polled saying he was "too old" to be running for a second term.

This could strengthen calls for the president to stand aside in favour of a younger Democratic candidate.

Biden is 1/31.33 to be candidate, which indicates that it is unlikely that he will go back on his vow to run, but the California governor Gavin Newsom (pictured below with Biden) has shortened to 11/26.50 to be the Democratic Party nominee.

Gavin Newsome and Joe Biden.jpg

Our politics betting expert Paul Krishnamurty discussed the possibility of a younger Democrat going up against Trump in-depth last week when Newsom was 7/18.00.

Former-first lady Michelle Obama is 10/111.00 while vice president Kamala Harris is 12/113.00.

Conviction could sink Trump

The polling made pessimistic reading for the Biden campaign except for in one potentially crucial area.

Around six per cent of voters in the six key state polled said they would abandon Trump and vote Biden if the former-president were convicted in the trial relating the January 6 2021 storming of the US Capitol.

The trial is taking place in Washington D.C next March and many commentators believe Trump will be convicted.

If that turns out to be the case his candidacy will be in jeopardy and the Republican party may have to look beyond him.

After Trump 1/51.20, Nikki Haley 9/110.00, who worked in the Trump administration, is the shortest price in the Republican nominee market on the Sportsbook.

The outspoken Ron De Santis, who was once the favourite to take on Biden in 2024, is 10/111.00.

The next 12 months will be huge for election betting so read Betting.Betfair for the latest news on our politics markets.


Read Paul Krishnamurty on the Democrats who could replace Biden as presidential nominee

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